Shane, the answers to your questions are out there:
I posted the following previously on the VD's Model Portfolio & Discussion Thread as message 4060.
Message 3386894
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To: +Vector1 (4018 )
From: +Rocketman
Tuesday, Feb 10 1998 12:39AM EST
Reply # of 4117
Damn, that wasn't a bad analysis was it. It is dated though, Roy Whitfield broke down
and bought a new BMW for instance, and HGSI seems to have disappeared from the
radar screens as they hunker down for a long drug development process.
I'm not sure if anyone posted any of the following, and I'm not going to read the last
1000 posts to find out, so excuse me if I'm redundant. Here's a few notes that I jotted
down during Roy Whitfield's INCY presentation at the H&Q conference last month, a
few other things I've heard, followed by a few of my predictions:
They have 1 Million plus ESTs sequenced and patents applied for.
1998 committed revenue of $105M vs $88M in 1997, but they project that they will
achieve $140-145M in 1998 with a profit of $20-22M ($0.70-0.75 EPS). I think that
since they stated this, that they will beat it. Roy has a reputation for consistently
understating what they will achieve and always exceeding his stated targets. He has a
very strong philosophy of not creating expectations which will not be met and to INCY
P&L is King.
They have filed for 400+ full length gene patents and 42 have issued. They have issued
6000 royalty bearing licenses to their pharma partners (which is what transpires when
they actually send you the DNA samples from the archives, what they call the reagent
business, as opposed to you just playing with the data on computer = biology in-silico).
Roy also commented at the annual meeting last year, subject to the forward looking
protection clauses of course, that it has been predicted that about 1/3 of the new
pharmaceuticals released in the 2005-2010 time frame will owe a royalty to INCY.
They are now up to about 650 employees and are breaking ground on a new 95,000
sq ft building in Palo Alto as they are bursting at the seams.
So, what are their current problems? Well, Randy Scott, President and Chief Visionary
is working on how to take their little old $1 billion dollar company and make it a $10
billion dollar one. IMO if anybody can lead them to it, Randy can!!! Keep in mind that
the history of Incyte is one in which virtually everyone kept telling him - you can't do it,
it won't work yadda yadda yadda....... Well, they were wrong and Randy was right.
INCY has exceeded everyone's wildest dreams, everyone except Randy Scott's that
is. IMHO INCY is now a first tier biotech and is going to ultimately dwarf many of the
industries biggest names. The critical mass is there and exploding rapidly. What's next?
I predict that they continue to rapidly move into more efficient means of sequencing
and that they may even develop their own advanced proprietary sequencing methods
that they will keep to themselves - why feed the competition better sequencing
methods and equipment? Who knows how to sequence better than them? No one.
They do more of it faster and cheaper than anyone else and their internal knowledge
should rapidly outstrip the internal capabilities of the likes of Perkin Elmer-ABI and
MDYN. They have moved beyond waiting for ABI to improve the sequencers and
moved ahead with things such as 96 well lane runs for instance. I figure that capillary
sequencing and the next generation mass spec systems will be the standard for them
sooner rather than later. It is still a gold rush, but INCY is digging with giant dredge
systems and not using a hand shovel and pan like the rest of the world, and those
dredges never stop...... Also, keep in mind that there is a lot more to high throughput
sequencing than the actual running of the sequences, there is the front end sample prep
and the back end bioinformatics. INCY deals with improving the whole process on
both an incremental and quantum leap basis continually.
As always, the above is based on my recollections, illegibly scribbled notes, my
fantasies and dreams......don't take any of it as gospel - I'm just not a religious guy.
Hanging onto INCY for the long trip to the stars.....
Rocketman
>>>>>>>>>>
You might also want to see an analysis, that is now a bit dated, I did last year on the HGSI thread at:
Message 951988
it has also been reposted at:
Message 3332873
In answer to the shear number of companies, it is the low 20's range although I must admit I don't keep an exact tally like the old days. I also don't keep track of when the subscription deals expire, but most are three year (a couple of them are four year). You could generate a fairly accurate list of when they expire by adding three years to the date of the press releases announcing the deals. INCY is pretty secretive about the $ size of the individual deals, I think partly to help them when they are negotiating price with the Pharmas. That way they don't have to hear Pharmas whining about how such and such paid less last year than they have to now. Each deal is customized to some extent. INCY has a list of deals on their web site at:
incyte.com
Also listed are their collaborations, which are in some ways more impressive than the subscriptions.
I tend to get a bit lazy about posting on the INCY thread sometimes, and tend to post mainly on the VD thread where off topic discussions and humor are tolerated, if not expected. Hope this helps you.
Rman |
