Well if you're not bearish why post on a bear thread? :)
I don't fear a liquidity crush....yet. It is something to watch as ONRRP drained to $438B and TGA is also dropping again going into tax season. That said there is no debt ceiling in the USA and the government seems okay spending. Hey, the fed expenses exceeded their income by $114B so that's good, right? Interest expenses they paid rose by $116B.....
Either way the market overall is overextended and is due for a pull back. SPY for example has risen 27.2% since April 5th, 2023. And prior writings from folks like Graham have shown value will go down with it. Unemployment is down to 3.8% but looking at the white collar job loss piling up that's enough for me to see red coming.
Some of my stocks took some hits real quick that I figured it was best to get out of the way.
<< As a small investor, I feel you always ought to be invested.>>
I do not share that view. If I get a sense things are turning I would rather protect my downside than stay invested and take hits. If I buy a stock for $10/s and it drops to $6.50 that's a 35% decline but to get back to $10 that's a 54% increase. Reading too much Harry Shultz literature I guess.
QRTEA I knew what I got into as a turnaround and hedged my risk and it worked out, but not comfortable doing that for everything.
<<All of that said, I wonder how many "value" investors are actually beating the market these days>>
According to Fidelity my five year cumulative return is 110.18% vs. the S&P which is 94.36% and my YTD is 26.78% vs. S&P which is 8.32%. Enough for me to continue to learn, refine, and try and beat Mr. Market.
As Warren would say " be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful". A big driver for some of success came when I took from Dr. Burry to stop looking at this as managing my own money and look at it as if I were managing a portfolio. To me there is too much greed in equities that I want to reset this "portfolio".
Maybe I'm early, but if I am, I didn't lose any money either. Missing gains is not the same as losing money.
-Sean |
