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Strategies & Market Trends : CFZ E-Wiggle Workspace
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To: skinowski who wrote (40166)4/9/2024 2:37:31 PM
From: Perspective1 Recommendation

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skinowski

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You had asked about Kondratieff recently. I think I picked up most of it from Prechter's book, but I can't seem to find it at the moment to confirm.

I was thinking this morning that the four seasons may be altered by the collective attempts to avoid ever letting financial winter - the D-words (deflation, depression) - ever happen again.

If you insist that winter can't happen, then you might just cycle back and forth between summer and fall, but the summer is going to be increasingly inflationary. Referring to the image below, rates are supposed to bottom in winter, coincident with a crisis of confidence. Very, very hard to imagine that four bad weeks (March 2020) constitute "winter." The credit and confidence cycles never unfolded.

And if you don't get winter, than you can't get spring. If you jump straight back into summer, then the downsides of summer might assert themselves with a vengeance: much higher inflation, commodities, and interest rates. Kinda funny that they have real estate in every season except winter.

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