Hi WEagle,
Thank you for confirming that.
I had produced the numbers, but didn't catch the early confirmation at CBF.
Just a note of appreciation, as I use your 35 ema numbers and the 30 sma PPP numbers as well.
If we look at the CLX charts, we've had what looks to me like a very long in time and very positive in number positive CLX and PPP numbers.
To see those numbers change with the many up and down cycles over many years we should glean a very experienced insight of the general market strength or weakness.
I'm getting a bit nervous of the longer duration. That does not mean it's a bad market. I have not sold any far out puts and I have been building cash into Schwab money markets and US government Treasuries.
I have added to my AMNF position only. I also believe that in a stock market top every dog gets his day. That means the small caps explode to huge percentage gains. Its fast and explosive. Large positions taken when the stock price was cheap are best scaled out of during a 4-6 bagger. When the top pops, there is no way to get out of a big position. Getting your seed money out first, allows peace of mind in holding a position when "on the market's money". When the money is coming out of the market, those who make a killing are those who have already taken their money out completely and have sold short shares. Those are the shares that makes the market too heavy. The low priced stocks as they advance are a great clue of money coming out.
We may well find ourselves on a powerful mega trend with the implementation of "Artificial Intelligence".
I dislike the term "Artificial Intelligence". I prefer Hewlett Packard's term "Automatic Intelligence".
In a short summary of the impact of AI, I expect to see is a computer that learns sequences that happen frequently and then writes code on how to handle those events.
That eliminates a lot of low income people that handle customer inquiries almost always correctly and more importantly it reduces the number of expensive code writing employees.
To the degree that a company can identify and handle efficiently those tasks, their customers are served better and their employee costs get reduced and the bottom line profit enjoys higher margins.
JP Morgan, the worlds largest Bank has said they already have over 400 applications of AI.
That will create a global modification/adaptation of how business gets done. A new MEGA TREND!
Much like the internet changed the world, it was vastly overhyped in its early inception 1999 to 2001. It created huge losses from overordering, but it DID relentlessly continue and change the world in a long 20 year view.
Those who master it will prevail and advance with greater profits.
What can derail that is a commodity super cycle. That broad super cycle was triggered in 2007 when the fed and other Central Banks lowered rates. That is when China began a real estate buildout that used up every bit of metal and energy the world could harvest. It resulted in a huge over build of low quality construction. I suspect their economy will be a laggard. It took the US from 2008 to 2020ish to get out of our real estate over build (the result of poor credit decisions and easy money).
Commodity super cycles always come from a burgeoning population and the emerging markets that have less developed economies and an exploding youthful demographic - Think India and Africa next.
What will make the house of cards collapse has so far always been an energy spike in crude and all fossil fuels.
That spike always comes from the exploding demand coming from the emerging markets PLUS what the developed markets need as well - think data centers and their relentless need of electricity for computing more and more life decisions i.e. AI!
The thought that with renewable energy overall demand will be curtailed is the folly of the current electrification move that will fail.
Running EVs with electricity made from fossil fuels is wrong thinking. I suspect people of our age will not see the fullness of an "atomic energy of green alternatives". 'Im very sure the cost of commodities and crude in particular will be the derailment clue to watch for at least one more general market decline.
Always watch where the hype is - its never correct at the peak of the hype. The overhype and over confidence is the source of the next general market sell off and decline. Those cycles are as perpetual as no living thing can survive with out breathing in and breathing out.
Thanks again for your confirmation and daily help with the numbers.
Your daily discipline and accuracy of calculation is a great support for us all at Crystal Ball. My hunch is there are a lot more people that check Wollie World than we think. Over the many years I've been there - I keep finding new lurkers. Your sharing of your work has filled the void that Joanne McCable's passing created. That is a huge help for Cheif!
Bob |
