<< In the end, costs always get passed onto consumers. Firms won't do it until they have to. Why wouldn't it happen in 2024?>>
There is only so much cost increase a consumer can accept before they pull back. Economics are not the same in 2024 as they were in 2021. You need to understand inflation and how it impact the business cycle and right now we're at the point where pricing power ran first and now that power is gone.
<< As for cutting costs to protect margins, well, that's always happening where necessary. How does that link to layoffs?>>
Well if I can't raise my prices to the consumer but my costs to produce are still going up then I need to cut from my bottom line. Excess hiring from 2020-2022 will likely be the first place to cut from. Are you not seeing the white collar work being cut right now?
<< I can't see a direct catalyst that really "crashes" this market.>>
Well, comments like that and some of the data points are enough for me to throw my contrarian hat on and stand clear :)
<< I wonder if it doesn't come for a year (hypothetically, of course), would you be tempted to get back into stocks?>>
Uh....yeah. I can and will change my decision on a dime. If I am wrong so be it, I need to identify I am wrong fast and move in the other direction. I see signs to be bearish right now so I am positioning as such. If I am wrong then I change. And I am mostly in cash so if I am wrong once again that didn't lose me capital did it? Missing gains is not the same as losing money.
As for the perma bear comment I laugh at that given I have written about my bullish positions before I closed on the value thread.
Either way Harshu, this is a bear thread so we should be discussing strategies for such a market turn. I know the board is not moderated, but we really should keep the focus on strategies for those that see a bear market. If you don't see one then there are plenty of other places for you to post on SI with other market views. While the thread is mostly inactive it is helpful to get real strategies on how some folks are positioning.
FWIW my puts on QQQ have gone up 41% since opening them on 4/10/24. Will only tolerate a small correction if they reverse but that's a decent sign given the recent movements that looking the other direction in the market is the right decision for now. SPY broke the 50 day moving average which is a good sign here that there could be trouble, same with QQQ which broke the 50 today as well.
-Sean |
