Are We Seeing the Start Of The Tech/AI Bubble Deflate?
Friday was option expiration and $SOX -4.12% & Nasdaq -2.05% sold off while other XLU (utilities) +1.6% & XLE (Energy) +1.14%; real estate, healthcare and consumer durables all higher.
It has been an incredible run for companies like NVDA, META, AMD, ARM & SMCI while more value centric companies utilities, food stocks & other low PE stocks not so much.
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I have been using the Paul Sr. approach, scanning the new 52wk lows (if not 5 year lows) searching for value with companies w/ low PE's and selling at/below BV.
My recent Buys appear boring to these high tech wonders and/or other stocks discussed that have no earnings and/or questionable tangible assets (some w/ huge Goodwill too which will eventually be written off).
My approach is simple. Companies w/ consistent FCF over years (and hopefully growing), low PE (less than 19x, lower is better) and has pricing power. Some may/could benefit from AI and/or looking to become more efficient through restructuring, own undervalued assets that may be of interest to others willing to pay 'all cash', or has been an avoided sector simple because it is not a daily gainer (ie NVDA).
As an example of the gainers/sectors from Friday in my portfolio:
UGI +8.2% (interest from ADNOC for the AmeriGas Division)
CVX +1.54% (part of the XLE)
KMI +3.46% (beat on earnings & raised div)
WMB +2.47%; ENB +2.83% (pipeline)
SJM +3.29%; KHC +1.81% (consumer staple)
LEG +3.28% (10 yr low, announced 2 year restructure program)
ANDE +3.24%; AGRO +2.42%; PAHC +1.99%; AGCO +1.73%; TITN +1.66% (Ag sector)
NWN +2.98%;ETR +2.9%;EIX +2.65%; AEP +1.99%; SRE +1.99%; (utilities)
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Recent Buys in April:
HR, TWI, GILD, G, LOCO, LEG, AEP, SOLV, UGI, SJM, INMD, VFF, GTN, MDT, GOOS, PAHC, ADM
Recent Sells in April:
LOCO, APA, SOLV, KHC, OVV, BLDR, FCX, MKSI, CVX,
For the first time (in a long time) my largest recent buys are/were in the utility sector: AEP & UGI |
