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Technology Stocks : TAVA Technologies (TAVA-NASDAQ)

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To: Josef Svejk who wrote (11658)2/18/1998 5:34:00 PM
From: Skeptic  Read Replies (8) of 31646
 
Josef, agree or disagree, at least we're finally discussing what really matters to this stock.

My view is that Y2K will generate earnings for a couple of years but these only deserve a P/E of 1 because they are certain to go away. The cumulative Y2K EPS will not come close to the $9+ needed to support the current stock price. So yes, everything comes down to the long-term opportunity.

The potential market for embedded systems Y2K is much larger than Tava could ever address. This is bad! Companies will have to find other solutions which will then become potential future competitors to Tava in Y2K and systems integration. Profit draws competition, especially with a long-term opportunity.

Hundreds of CEOs are talking to Tava because they are rightfully scared about Y2K. How many of them also are interested in systems integration is not at all clear. This is the crucial point that determines whether or not this is a good investment. Even if the answer is many, future competition should be a serious concern. There are many very large companies that will be willing and able to enter a growing and profitable market. What does Tava have that is proprietary or patented beyond Y2K?
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