January Non-OPEC and World Oil Production, Big Drop – Peak Oil Barrel
05/11/2024
By Ovi
The focus of this post is overall World oil production along with a more detailed review of the top 11 Non-OPEC oil producing countries. OPEC production is covered in a separate post.
Below are a number of Crude plus Condensate (C + C) production charts, usually shortened to “oil”, for oil producing countries. The charts are created from data provided by the EIA’s International Energy Statistics and are updated to January 2024. This is the latest and most detailed/complete World Oil production information available. Information from other sources such as OPEC, the STEO and country specific sites such as Brazil, Norway and China is used to provide a short term outlook.
 World oil production decreased by 1,402 kb/d in January, green graph. The largest decrease came from the U.S., 762 kb/d. February’s World oil production is projected to rebound by 696 kb/d to 82,204 kb/d.
From December 2023 to December 2025, production is estimated to increase by 1,704 kb/d.
This chart also projects World C + C production out to December 2025. It uses the May 2024 STEO report along with the International Energy Statistics to make the projection.
The red and brown graphs forecast a range for World oil (C + C) production out to December 2025. For December 2025, the production upper limit is 84,614 kb/d while the lower limit is 84,311 kb/d. The December 2025 upper limit forecast is 651 kb/d higher than reported in the previous World update and is also higher than the November 2018 peak.
A note of caution. The May STEO has now switched to reporting/forecasting only Crude, which is also shown in the chart. As a result the red and brown C+C graphs are projections based on the Crude graph. There is a significant change in the ratio (C + C)/C over the last three months of reported crude production relative to the previous three months. This difference makes a significant change to the projection. The red graph uses the average for last three months of data to make the forecast while the brown graph uses the last six months.
The issue is why are the last three month ratios higher than the previous year. Is the increase due to a real increase in condensate over the last three months or is the STEO collecting better information now that they are transitioning to reporting only Crude.
A few more months of data will be required to determine the best way to project C + C production from crude production.
 World without US January oil output decreased by 714 kb/d to 68,932 kb/d. February production is expected to increase by 33 kb/d to 68,965 kb/d.
Note that December 2025 output of 70,705 kb/d is 1,977 kb/d lower than the November 2018 peak of 72,682 kb/d.
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