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Strategies & Market Trends : The Final Frontier - Online Remote Trading
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To: dpl who wrote (3050)2/18/1998 7:41:00 PM
From: Robert Graham  Read Replies (2) of 12617
 
Yes, there are similarities, aren't there? What is that Wall Street axiom of contrary opinion? If you find that everyone including the "shoe shine boy" is talking about their own stock investments and offering stock tips to their clients, then you know you are near the end of the bull market. For instance I recently have had a woman as a watress in a small family restaurant give me my first unsolicited stock tip for this bull market. Talking to her I knew she does not understand the market and is just passing along this "tip" from someone else. But she sounded confident in the stock tip. I think the substantial participation in small caps can be used to support this view of the market and its participation by the average Joe "I-wanna-be-in-too" Public Investor armed with credit card in hand.

There is definitely very positive sentiment in the market place right now. Between this and the money flow into the stock market from institutions, and its evidence in the accompaniing breakouts of key stocks, and markets (indices), I thought this rally would end up with some staying power. What is surprising me is how the bond market is holding up to the transfer of funds from the more defensive position in bonds into stocks considering the ongoing rally in indices like the NASDAQ and DJIA. But then some of this money that has been moving into the "blue chip" DJIA stocks has been from foreign participation in our markets. Even though the Asian markets appear to have firmed up for the time being, I think allot of foreign money is looking for a safer place. I think this began as movement into our bond market, which may continue to be helping to keep that market from a more significant falloff. And then there are the "died in the wool blue chip" type of stocks that everyone in the world has heard of like GE, Walt Disney, and others. I think once our market started to show strength, foreign money started to once again move into our markets through this type of investment.

Just a "coffee house" style opinion here.

Bob Graham
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