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Technology Stocks : Osicom(FIBR)
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To: craig crawford who wrote (5370)2/18/1998 7:42:00 PM
From: David Pawlak  Read Replies (1) of 10479
 
>>Apparently my beliefs were correct. Even you, the biggest proponent of FIBR, are biased towards a negative number. 9 cents give or take 2 cents implies 7-11 cents. If the estimate is for 11 cents you are not expecting them to beat the numbers and it sounds like you think they might miss.>>

Craig- How do you know what I'm really expecting? Think about it... Do you really think I would give you a straight answer on what I really think they are going to earn in Q4? Or do you think I might be more likely to low ball my estimation, enticing you into a short position, so that they beat it and squeeze your short? Keep in mind.... they had record backlog the last time they disclosed it...

Frankly, it doesn't make any difference to me. Say they did come in with just $.07 That would give them an eps run rate of $.28, which at a forward pe of 20 would give them a stock price of $5.60. A 20 p/e is on the low end of the Networking industry p/e's and it says absolutely nothing about the expected earnings capitalization resulting from the GigaMux, IQX-200 or Net Arm potential. Keep in mind that Q4 has captured a very small amount of these 3 new major products as a % of total revenues. That is expected to dramatically change by over the next few months.
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