The Russian Navy's 'Decline' Nightmare Is Just Getting Started (msn.com)
Kirov-Class Battlecruiser from Russian Navy© Provided by National Interest
Summary: The Russian Navy has been significantly weakened since the invasion of Ukraine, losing approximately half of its Black Sea Fleet.
Kirov-Class© Provided by National Interest
-Ukraine's innovative use of unmanned drones and long-range missiles has highlighted the vulnerability of traditional warships.
-The loss of multiple vessels and the non-operational status of Russia's only aircraft carrier, Admiral Kuznetsov, further degrade Russia's naval power.
-Rebuilding the fleet will be a long, expensive process, and current military challenges make it unlikely for the Russian Navy to regain its former strength in the near future.
Can Russia Rebuild Its Navy After Devastating Losses?The Russian Navy has been devastated in the years since President Vladimir Putin launched his invasion of Ukraine. Without a functioning aircraft carrier, and lacking now the warships that Ukraine has destroyed, Russia’s navy is hardly the maritime force one expects from a global power.
Can Moscow re-establish its navy to respectability?
Trouble in the WaterRussia’s Black Sea Fleet has suffered a heavy toll. Since February 2022, “the Ukrainians have destroyed or damaged roughly half of the Russian fleet’s warships, including one submarine, per publicly available information,” Business Insider reported.
The remarkable part is that Kyiv cannot rely on its own navy. Instead, Ukraine has used unmanned maritime drones and long-range anti-ship missiles to attack Russian warships, hinting at a new era in naval warfare where the traditional warship is vulnerable to asymmetrical methods.
Dmytro Pletenchuk, spokesman for the Naval Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, boasted that while the Russian Navy had about 80 warships when the conflict began, “the Black Sea fleet operations have been greatly complicated, if not paralyzed.”
Ukrainian efforts against the Russian Navy have been worthwhile, allowing Ukraine to resume shipping grain through the Black Sea (which is as vital to the Ukrainian economy as it is to the international stock of grain) and forcing the Russians to divest attention from their homeport, Sevastopol.
Russian Navy© Provided by National Interest
“Several Russian ships that Ukraine claimed to have destroyed have yet to be fully identified, but reportedly among them are Raptor-class patrol boats, a BK-16 high speed assault boat, Serna-class and Akula-class landing craft, and a Stenka-class patrol vessel,” Business Insider reported.
Here is a list of ships we know the Russians have lost since the war began: the Saratov amphibious landing ship; the Moskva guided missile cruiser; the Vasily Bekh rescue tugboat; the Ivan Golubets minesweeper; the Olenegorsky Gornyak tank-landing ship; the Minsk landing vessel; and the Rostov-on-Don submarine. There are more.
The damage to the Russian Navy leaves Putin without the naval strength associated with a modern power.
Adding to the malaise, Russia has been without their lone aircraft carrier, the Admiral Kuznetsov, since before the war began.
Will Russia ever be able to rejuvenate its naval strength and compete as a world power?
The Russian Military - A Paper Tiger
Russia’s military performance during the Russo-Ukraine War suggests that Russian military prowess was overstated in the years preceding the conflict. Russia, despite having the world’s third-largest military budget, and a relatively sizable military, has failed to secure meaningful territory while sustaining egregious losses to personnel and equipment. The Russian Navy, meanwhile, felled by unmanned drones and long-range missiles, and failing to adapt over the course of two years, has outed itself as a mediocre fighting force.
The truth seems to be that Russia is a borderline regional power. Its invasion has failed for more than two years to secure the territory of its most immediate neighbor, which comes to the fight significantly undermanned and underequipped relative to its much larger enemy.
Russia Aircraft Carrier© Provided by National Interest
The idea that Russia was a global power before the war, or could be a global power at any point in the near future, seems outlandish. With respect to the Russian Navy specifically, rejuvenation will take time. Even under ideal circumstances, rebuilding and refunding half a fleet’s worth of warships would be an extremely time-intensive and expensive process. But two years deep into a land-based war of attrition, replenishing the navy is unlikely to be a high priority. Don’t expect the Russian Navy to be replenished adequately in the near future. |
