Ken -
I think you ignore the fact that many of the people on this board who are bullish do acknowledge that Zip drives do fail, and that they do fail in the particular way which is being made famous lately.
I also think that the bulls have not been totally wrong over the last two years. Yes, there have been earnings estimates posted which were too high. There have also been estimates which were too low. And there have also been pretty consistent increases in revenues, earnings and gross margins, despite bearish predictions to the contrary.
I remember predictions made a year and a half ago that LS-120 would be the end of Zip. I remember predictions even longer ago that Zip demand would dry up after a couple of million were sold. I look back at things like Joel Sternberg's contention, over a year ago, that the only opportunity to make money on IOM was on the short side. If you look at the chart from the point where he made that statement to just a few weeks ago, you see that there was plenty of opportunity on the long side. Of course, any chart is easier to read when you have the whole thing in front of you.
I sure wish I could have seen the present chart a couple of months ago. Unfortunately, since I felt the bears had been wrong so often before, I didn't believe them then. It should be noted, however, that not even the biggest bears around predicted the company would miss estimates.
I do agree that we need to consider the bearish arguments here. I agree that many people on this thread are too quick to just lash out at any negative opinion. We do all tend to reinforce each other only on the positive points.
The bulls have not always been right on this thread, the bears haven't either. The stock may be down right now, but that really doesn't tell me that the bears have been right all along. It's been down before, and it has come back up before. That's pretty much the way of most stocks.
BTW, I also agree with you that this board is one of the stock's biggest enemies. Not for the reason you give, but because it makes financial firms wary of initiating coverage.
- Allen |
