Roger's 1998 Short Picks Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks

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To: Cosmo Daisey who wrote (3213)	2/18/1998 10:30:00 PM
From: Oeconomicus	Read Replies (1) of 18691

Cos, you realize of course that the more things change ... Everyone has the same information but each reacts to it differently. Close, but no cigar. Try this - No matter what the information, everyone reacts the same. If earnings fall short of estimates, buy because now that the bad news is out, investors will focus on future earnings. Earnings beat estimates, buy because -well- they beat the street. No earnings in the foreseeable future? No problem; buy because of the phenomenal potential. No revenue? Buy because they are building a better Cray or will be the next MSFT or AOL or YHOO. Buy because inflation is dead; buy because deflation will never happen; buy because we might avoid war; buy because we might go to war; buy because the Prez isn't in THAT much trouble; buy because Asia will slow things enough so the Fed won't tighten; buy because Asia won't effect us; buy the dips; jump on the rallies; BUY BECAUSE THE MARKET BEATS INTEREST BEARING CHECKING. BTW, Investors Intelligence counts only 32.5% bears, Consensus Inc. 56% bulls, Market Vane 67% bulls, and finally the American Association of Individual Investors 19% bears. All show increasing bullishness/decreasing bearishness and all are in the ballpark of the levels of October 24, 1997. I expect them all to be even more bullish this week. Bob PS: Will Iraq be to Clinton and this bull market what the Bay of Pigs was to Kennedy and the 1962 market?

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