| | | COTS as of June 4, 2024
The Dollar and Yields Rally Friday Causing Chaos in the Commodities Space
The SPX and QQQ Make New All Time Highs
This past week gold rallied through to Thursday and had a nasty pull back on Friday down to $2,325.00. The HUI has pulled back from its high of May 20th closing out the week at 263.12. Both gold and the HUI are working off their overbought condition.
Silver made a similar pattern as gold, pulling back from its recent high made on May 20th closing out the week at $29.44. Silver is also working off its overbought condition.
Copper was acting as a typical short squeeze with a blow off top correcting off its recent high in spite of the physical shortage worldwide. Copper is approaching oversold territory.
Again, platinum has pulled back from its recent high of May approaching oversold territory closing out the week at $971.10. Although the move in palladium is tamer, it has the same pattern as the other metals approaching oversold closing the week at $923.10 keeping within its trading range between $950 and $1,100 since mid-January.
This week WTIC bounced ending its correction which began in April closing the week at $75.00. Natgas is the commodity that has been very strong and is bouncing up near recent highs closing the week at $2.92. The MACD looks to be approaching a bullish crossover, or not.
The US$ which has been correcting since April had a massive bounce on Friday causing mayhem in the commodities space. The US$ started a timely bounce as it was approaching oversold. It closed the week out at 104.86. The yield on the 10 year US treasury had a very strong move up to close out at 4.44 helped by interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank. All eyes will be on the Federal Reserve meeting next week.
Turning to the major stock indices, the SPX and QQQ are making new highs while the DOW has pulled back from all time highs and is currently bouncing off a resistance level. The TSX appears to have started a downward move within a channel.
Ed Steer comments:
" ... despite the price pain on Friday, both silver and gold remain hugely bearish from a COMEX futures market perspective ..."
With respect to the Commitment of Traders report, the commercials have been reducing both their long and COMEX short positions in both gold and silver reducing open interest. Generally this is bearish. See here and here and here.
Disaggregated futures and options - combined report:
cftc.gov
Legacy Report: Futures Only Commodity Exchange Incorporated:
cftc.gov |
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