Still wary/tentatively looking for a mid July top, then down into early fall. We C.
Over the next few years or more this (NG) is gonna be huge.
Hope I live to see it, my read is post about 2027 to 2028 the US markets gonna be dominated by commodity related action. Vis a vis a huge dollar top yet in the future followed by a big dollar dump.
Right now I have the dollar rising, into a cycle high. Still a ways ahead. China and others are starting to dump treasuries. Regardless of who gets in office we have deficits afa the eye can see, big ones, which have to be financed. If a few biggies are dumping treasuries, they are gonna have to pay more interest to peddle them. The mule has to be fed. And no matter what side of the aisle they both like a rising dollar, because it masks the real future problem which is run away inflation.
Not sure the next term for POTUS is a desirable one. Quite likely to be coincident with a market melt down into the next election. With inflation still raging.
Big Inet 2000 top happened with longer term rates about 7 %. Rhyme/Repeat?
I remember the late 70's and early 80's well, was just starting a family. But today the scene is uglier, because back then the LT direction for rates was down, now it is up. And those are long cycles.
I know you study these things, make any sense? It is more than just charts imo, some fundamentals are behind it all.
Tweets
Here is where we are at on the dailies. Current thot is the mid July line might be near a top. Mid Oct line near a low, as we head into winter season.
Another thing the futs have been heavily contango. As the bull proceeds this could change, and they will likely at some point go backward. This might lessen the terrible decay and lag in Boil, relative to the NG cont.
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