Micron’s Earnings Should Get a Boost From AI Servers and PCsThe memory-chip maker is expected to benefit from a combination of factors tied to artificial intelligence.
By
Eric J. Savitz
June 26, 2024 2:30 am ET
Micron shares have more than doubled over the past year.
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Micron Technology is expected to report robust quarterly growth as the memory chip maker benefits from a combination of improving demand for PCs and smartphones, the ebbing of excess inventory at automotive and industrial customers, and a demand surge tied to artificial intelligence.
Micron is a beneficiary of both accelerating demand for memory-hungry AI servers and the emergence of AI-capable PCs and smartphones that require more memory than their current generation counterparts.
The stock has surged 64% this year and 109% over the past 12 months. But there are reasons to believe there could be higher highs ahead. The stock traded for about $140 in Tuesday’s session.
Analysts have been ratcheting up estimates and price targets headed into the company’s fiscal third-quarter report. Anything less than a robust beat-and-raise result could leave Wall Street disappointed. But there is reason for optimism. DRAM pricing has been rising, driven in particular by strong demand for high bandwidth memory, or HBM, used in AI servers. Micron previously said it was sold out of HBM for this year and for much of 2025.
For the quarter ended in May, Micron’s guidance called for revenue of $6.6 billion, up 76%, with non-GAAP gross margin of 26.5%, adjusted profit of 45 cents a share, and GAAP profit of 17 cents a share. Street consensus estimates as tracked by FactSet call for $6.67 billion in revenue and 48 cents in adjusted profit.
For the quarter ending in August, Street consensus calls for $7.59 billion in revenue, up 89%, with profit on an adjusted basis of $1.02 a share.
For the fiscal year ending in August, consensus calls for revenue of $37.3 billion, up 50%, with a profit of $9.01 a share. Wall Street sees fiscal 2025 revenue of $43.1 billion, which would be up 16%, with profit of $12.04 a share.
In reporting February quarter results, CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said Micron should be “one of the biggest beneficiaries in the semiconductor industry of this multi-year growth opportunity driven by AI.” And investors and analysts believe what he’s saying.
In a note previewing the quarterly report, Wolfe Research analyst Chris Caso repeated his Outperform rating on Micron shares and boosted his target price to $200 from $150. He lifted his earnings estimates, citing “stronger industry conditions and optimism regarding HBM.” Caso sees a case where Micron eventually hits a profit of $20 a share, with demand for HBM driving up pricing for conventional DRAM. “The plausibility of that scenario is what keeps us bullish on MU’s stock despite its recent run,” Caso writes.
Raymond James analyst Srini Pajjuri likewise reiterated his Outperform on Micron shares, while boosting his target to $160 from $130. He expects Micron to report “a beat and raise on pricing strength,” offsetting the volume impact from the recent Taiwan earthquake that affected some of Micron’s production facilities. “We expect memory industry supply/demand balance to remain tight through the year, driving double-digit [sequential] price increases in both markets,” he writes.
In his preview of the quarter, Citi analyst Christopher Danely confirmed his Buy rating on Micron stock while upping his target to $175 from $150. The stock remains his top pick. “We expect the company to post results and guidance above consensus given the DRAM upturn and Micron’s increasing AI memory exposure,” he writes. “Micron should continue to trade at a premium to its historical range given AI exposure.”
Write to Eric J. Savitz at eric.savitz@barrons.com |
