Thought this was interesting about the history of results when we finish the first half of the year up.
Stellar. Strong. Much better than anticipated. Those are all adjectives that describe how stocks have done in the first six months of 2024.
The S&P 500 is up nearly 15% year to date, while the Nasdaq Composite has climbed 19%. The Dow Jones Industrial has lagged, up 3.9%, but it reached all-time highs in the first half along with the S&P 500 and Dow.
Those gains were led by tech, as Nvidia kept driving the artificial intelligence rally that began in late 2022. Year to date, the S&P 500 tech sector is up 28%. Here are the five best performing stocks in the group:
- Super Micro Computer: Up 213%
- Nvidia: up 150%
- Micron Technology: up 55%
- CrowdStrike: 51%
- Arista Networks: 47%
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Historically, such a strong start to the year bodes well for stocks going forward.
“From 1945 through 2023, if H1 was up, H2 was higher by an average 5.3%, rising 76% of the time. If H1 > 10%, the market gained 7.9% on average in H2, rising 84% of the time,” Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, said in an email.
However, some on the Street are skeptical that the major averages can keep this rally going.
“Despite all of this well-earned strength and momentum, my instinct is now would be a good time to tap the brakes, a little bit anyways,” wrote Tony Pasquariello, global head of hedge fund coverage at Goldman Sachs. “To be clear, this is not a run-for-the-hills argument ... it’s a be-disciplined, hedge-your-tails consideration.”
Elsewhere on Wall Street this morning, Deutsche Bank raised its price target on First Solar to $280 from $215.
"Despite the upcoming U.S. elections and the numbers of risks to the solar industry that could emerge in the coming months, we view as minimal the risk to see the 45x tax production credit being removed," analyst Corinne Blanchard wrote.
"Therefore, we believe First Solar is likely to further benefit from it, and we forecast $1.05bn of tax credits this year and $1.65bn in 2025," she said.
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