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Strategies & Market Trends : Ride the Tiger with CD
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To: dara who wrote (304163)6/30/2024 10:56:40 AM
From: dara4 Recommendations

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31Floors
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COTS as of June 25, 2024

Gold and Silver Quietly Correct While The Dollar is Strong and Yields Rally

The QQQ Makes Another New All Time High

This past week gold bounced and is working off an overbought condition. It closed the week at $2,339.60 The HUI is looking more perky than the underlying metal with the MACD crossing over in a bullish move. Both gold and the HUI are well above their 200 dma.

Silver is consolidating just below $30 closing out on Friday at $29.56. Silver is also working off its overbought condition and is well above its 200 dma.

Copper has had a steep decline from its recent high of $5.20 currently trading down to $4.39. Copper is approaching oversold territory but is still above its 200 dma. Traders I follow are watching closely for a buy level.

Platinum has been the strongest of the precious metals and is in rally mode having moved from a recent low of $950.00 closing the week out at $1,014.10 keeping within a range of $950 to $1,100. Platinum reached close to its 200 dma and reversed heading higher moving from oversold but not yet overbought. Palladium also had a small bounce closing the week at $977.50. Palladium is below its 200 dma.

This week WTIC has been strong consolidating just below $82 closing the week out at $81.54. It is just above its 200 dma. Natgas has been correcting from its recent high working off its overbought condition and approaching its 200 dma. It closed the week at $2.60.

For the month of June, the US$ has been in rally mode ending the month at 105.54. The US$ has been strong as the Fed is talking tough on inflation while other central banks have started to cut rates. In addition the Japanese yen has been weak with the Bank of Japan intervening in that market. For the same reasons, the yield on the 10 year US treasury had a very strong move up to close out at 4.40.

Turning to the major stock indices, the DOW is off its all time highs working off its overbought condition. The SPX is consolidating at its all time highs while the QQQ pierced through its all time high. The TSX has rallied after correcting from its all time highs.

Ed Steer comments:

On silver:

" ... This is still wildly bearish from a COMEX futures market perspective..."

On gold:

"... There is no sign whatsoever that the Big 8 commercial shorts...all bullion banks or investment houses...are loosening their iron grip on the precious metals, au contraire -- and it's all spelled out chapter and verse for both gold and silver in this COT Report. ..."

With respect to the Commitment of Traders report, the commercials increased their net short positions in both gold and silver on the COMEX reducing open interest in silver only. Generally this is bearish. See here and here and here.






































Disaggregated futures and options - combined report:

cftc.gov

Legacy Report: Futures Only Commodity Exchange Incorporated:

cftc.gov
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