I pay more attention to geopolitics as that simply more fun even if might not be more important that national / domestic politics of any / any group of nations.
I guess that no matter who wins the U.S. national election, Europe loses.
A European loss is good for all except Europeans, in some sense, but might send Europe to reform school first, and such might turn out to be a longer term plus.
Am fairly sure that Europe is messier than even California - hard to imagine but I try.
De-industrialization is one mess. Migration another mess (I know, arguably, and I do not argue but prefer to wait). De-militarization was a surprise, unlike the former two vectors.
Do not know what it takes to change directions, but fairly sure taking on Russia unlikely to be the easier way even as all ways ought to be hard, to seriously hard.
At some juncture Europe might decouple from China, at behest of USA, or decide not to, or even decouple from USA in favor of China and therefore Russia, or in favor of Russia and therefore China, and if so, well, TeoTwawKi by any other name. Whichever ways, multipole planet would qualify as TeoTwawKi.
2026-2032 should be interesting as multi polarity comes to the fore decisively / irreversibly.
2032-2042 probably riveting as demography vectors take hold one or another way everywhere.
2042-2049 ohwhoawee as new planet becomes clear.
Guesses. We watch the script roll. |
