My last post was February 9 where I started a short with a target for a high of 5044. That was mostly based on 4900 plus a fib 144. The market slightly exceeded that 5044 the next trading session, then corrected. When it exceeded 5044, I was stopped out with a loss.
Up in this area there are 3 targets I've been looking at, but one in particular. These are all multiples of 700 from important numbers the market has hit. The numbers are 3393, 4808, and 666 with the corresponding targets 3393 + 2100, 4808 + 700, and 666 + 4900, or 5493, 5508, and 5566. The reason I didn't mention the first 2 earlier is I've thought 5566 is where the real action might be. The market has been looking tired for awhile. However, the big reversal bar of June 28 was exceeded this morning on the S&P 500. I seem to recall Linda Raschke saying over 20 years ago that when a wide range reversal bar is negated within 2 sessions, a continuation in that direction is almost assured - one of her best indicators. Since then, I've observed that generally does work. The market went slightly past 2 sessions but I think that still has to be respected. Due to proximity to 5566 and the holiday I am starting to nibble short. My goal is to be getting short on this continuation leg, however long it lasts. |
