In the scheme of things, no surprise. I think our govt. is out of control. Watching those kids yesterday protesting the bombing of Iraq is very 1960's. Scary.
Look at this mess>>INSTANT VIEW - U.S. Dec trade deficit $10.79 bln
NEW YORK, Feb 19 (Reuters) - Following are comments from U.S. economists after the Commerce
Department reported the U.S. trade deficit widened 24.3 percent to $10.79 billion in December from a
revised $8.68 billion gap in November.
Experts had expected the deficit to swell to $8.72 billion from $8.04 billion first reported in November.
DAVID KELLY, SENIOR ECONOMIST, PRIMARK DECISION ECONOMICS: ''Clearly, the gap
has come in much wider than expected. Possibly we're beginning already to see the impact of East
Asia. We thought it might hold off until the spring.
''The real implication here is one for the equity markets. We have to think very carefully about
earnings growth when the trade position is expected to turn more negative and now clearly is turning
negative more quickly than people had thought,'' he added.
PHILIP BRAVERMAN, SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT, CHIEF ECONOMIST, DKB SECURITIES
INC: ''The deficit is a lot larger than the consensus, but I think it's going to get larger still. We still have
some benefits, exports were up 1.3 (percent). The impact on aircraft (exports) has been delayed.
''Clearly cancellations (of aircraft orders) are coming. They just don't have the business because of the
Asian slowdown. But we are seeing the beginnings, I think, of the pickup in the imports from Asia and
that will have its impact in months and quarters to come. This is only a hint of what is likely to be
developing ahead.''
CARY LEAHEY, CHIEF U.S. ECONOMIST, HIGH FREQUENCY ECONOMICS: ''It is certainly
a little weaker than expected. Obviously it was affected by Asia and I believe there was some impact
of aircraft in there, too.
''It is going to knock down (Gross Domestic Product) growth by 0.5 percent. It is helpful for the bond
market because it is consistent with a slowdown, which together with some inventory adjustment will
probably give you 2.5 to 3.0 percent growth in the first quarter,'' Leahey added.
HARVINDER KALIRAI, ECONOMIST, I.D.E.A. INC: ''The weakness is concentrated in Asia.
The trade figures are starting to show the impact of the Asian financial and economic problems. And
that should look even more pronounced in the first quarter when seasonal adjustments to the trade data
will risk amplifying the trade deterioration with Asia.''
STEVEN RICCHIUTO, CHIEF FIXED INCOME ECONOMIST, ABN AMRO CHICAGO CORP:
''Everything is pretty much in line, although imports were more than what we were anticipating. It
appears the swing was in non-autos capital goods.''
GREG JONES, CHIEF ECONOMIST, BRIEFING.COM: ''Basically, the one thing we expected on
the export side was a surge in Boeing orders and we saw that. But declines elsewhere kept the export
increase a little smaller-than-expected and imports posted a larger-than-expected gain, which looks like
it's probably due in part to Asia.
''There was deterioration in a lot of the unadjusted Asia numbers. Usually in the December unadjusted
there is improvement. So, we actually went against normal seasonal trends which suggests definitely
things are starting to happen pretty quickly there on the trade front with Asia.''
FRED LEVIN, CHIEF ECONOMIST, EASTBRIDGE CAPITAL INC: ''Our trade deficit is starting
to deteriorate perhaps earlier than we thought. Maybe you can read that as a positive for the market.
But when you look at the details, what you find is that exports were strong during the month, and a big
change was a jump in imports, that could be indicative of the current strength in the U.S. economy
rather than the effects of the Asian crisis. So, it's really subject to interpretation, this report. Over the
next three to six months, we're going to see a deterioration in the trade figures due to the Asian crisis.
Whether this is the start of it or not, I don't really know.''
CHERYL KATZ, SENIOR ECONOMIST, MERRILL LYNCH & CO INC: ''The trade deficit
obviously came in wider than expected and much wider than the Commerce Department assumed in
their estimate of GDP. What this means is that ... the revision in real net exports will subtract out about
$12 billion from fourth-quarter GDP, hence GDP will likely be revised down close to one percent.'' |
