FWIW, TLT declined from its major top in early 2020 down to the low in late 2023 in FIVE waves.
As we’ve seen plenty of times, a wave may, eventually, prove to be something different than what it seems at the first blush. But, what the likely fiver down suggests is that after a bounce, the decline in bonds (advance in rates) will resume. How large a bounce? Use your favorite targeting method… but apparently, it’s positioned to resume.
Jay Kaeppel posted a few tweets re the long bond. Seasonality appears very favorable. And, he shares some more thoughts.
And, he posts a little spoiler, just to make things more interesting
Edit— who knows, maybe there are reasons - we haven’t seen serious inflation in decades. Also Asia, China. We are no longer the only heavyweight.
longtermtrends.net |
