Good morning to you Stitch. I am digesting things that is why I haven't replied sooner.
Between times I simply return to the underlying fundamentals of this Asian market... which is that sometime soon people are going to focus on the banks, on bank receivables and lending, on derivatives exposure (this was supposed to be insurance remember against "down drafts"), and, finally, they will look at liquidity. There won't be any liquidity.
Hard to time when this second look at Asia is going to come. All the media, the governments, everyone in control is trying to row at 75 strokes to the minute here so the boat doesn't slow down.
Remember that Korean markets were going to be "open" to foreigneers to purchase stock in mid-March, 1998. Postponned to Dec. 31, 98. Remember that Japan was going to have to meet reserve requirements by mid-March 1998. Where is that now?
The rules keep changing. There is, however, the same pool of potential investors in Asia. More investors aren't being invented the eway governments are inventing the news they release.
...so, the upshot is that when the downdraft comes next time people simply won't believe that governments are doing anything;and, that they can't do anything and they (the investors) won't want to get into the market... they'll just want to get out. IMHO.
That will be he buying opportunity.
Best to you and Bernie. Sime Darby has had a nice bounce probably up nearly 100% in a month. Same nearly with EWM.
|
