| | | Thank you for your added comments about CRWD. The more I've read about the outage on Reddit, especially at r/sysadmin, the more I feel this will overhang the stock for at least a few months once the full damage has been assessed. I believe the best CRWD can hope for is to trade flat to slightly down for awhile. Its valuation is so high that CRWD was priced beyond perfection, so missteps in execution will be treated harshly.
IT admins are reporting that many of their systems are still down and the 'quick fix' 'remedy supplied by CRWD has not worked. Compounding the problem is that many of these PCs were running as headless and cannot be rebooted remotely.
As I said previous and you know as well, mishap memories for us computer folk tend to be long and unforgiving. For example, after have two different models of Seagate hard drives fail in my own computer ~20 years ago, I never purchased another one. That was borne out later by extensive hard drive reliability data from cloud backup company Backblaze over many years. Seagate drives simply haven't been as reliable as those of competitors.
I'm also reminded of CMG's troubles with E. coli and norovirus outbreaks at their restaurants that took several years for the stock to recover from and culminated in the ouster of its founder, Steve Ells.
The difference between the stories of CMG and CRWD are that CMG allowed food borne illnesses to happen multiple times over several years, and consumers have many choices in the restaurant space, even among Mexican restaurants. CRWD's products are certainly more unique in that regard and they have only a few competitors.
I have no knowledge of the relative strength and features of competing products from S, PANW, or any other company, and that is a genuine problem in trying to analyze this situation fully. CRWD's ubiquity and market penetration may serve to "lock in" their customers, at least for the time being. |
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