We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon
Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
"Geopolitical Analyst" Peter Zeihan was asked why he was certain of a landslide victory for Biden.
He breaks the reasons for his forecast into several factors. Zeihan felt it was likely Nikki Haley would have beat Biden, had she beat out Trump. .
1.) The minority Republican Party is made up of three groups, four if you include Independents, three of which Trump has alienated:
. Social Issue Loons who are over the moon with Trump, but only to the extent he continues making their ever more extreme issues his primary cause;
. Military backers who've been wholly alienated by Trump's Tommy Tuberville hold-up of all military promotions until the military agrees to an abortion ban, let alone Trump's insane military meddling and sucking up to Putin and Xi;
. Business backers who do not support Trump and saw their House representatives lose their seats to Trump endorsed loons. Trump's promise of even larger tax cuts funded with debt impresses almost no one. Trump would gain some business votes if he promises to end Medicare benefits, but this would cost him more votes of Social Loons on Medicare who may find their healthcare coverage more important than abortion.
. Independents, without whom Republicans have never won, are completely alienated by Trump catering to the Social Issue Loons.
. Trump has a tenuous hold on the Social Issue Loons, but only so long as he continues to promote ever more ultra-conservative social policies. Republicans who are not Social Issue Loons are going to be far less interested in voting and most would not vote for Trump if they do vote. .
2.) RFK Jr is taking a significant portion of all "crazy voters" who previously voted for Trump. He believes it's obvious most that RFK Jr is very mentally ill, but he's catnip to mentally disturbed voters.
3.) Historically, polls take prior to the conventions of both parties have never correctly forecast the outcome of the coming election. Prior to the Conventions Hillary Clinton was way ahead of Trump.
4.) People who think Trump could win another term have apparently forgotten the results of the Mid-Term election wipe out which saw the out of power Republican Party, who should have gained a lot of seats, actually lose seats. And this is very predictive of the outcome of the General Elections two years later. Trump is Ballot Box Poison.
5.) Zeihan believes Trump will win a few Electoral States, but will badly lose the Electoral Count and the Popular Vote which will lead to a new political party replacing the Republican Party. His earlier caveat to his forecast was, this would change if Trump went to prison or if Biden died at the wrong time. Republican's agreement to Trump's pick of JD Vance as VP has doomed them, even if Trump were to die. While not accurate, Business Republicans call JD Vance the Republican Bernie Saunders.
6.) The new Conservative Party might be Democratic conservatives joining with former Republicans from the sane Business and Military factions. In this scenario, the Social Issue Loons form a splinter third party, likely joined by RFK Jr and his disturbed supporters.
Zeihan who correctly forecast the move to deglobalization holds a very grim outlook for China, collapsing due to demographics, and the newly militaristic Russia which will likely go down in flames attempting to invade Poland - and they will never be a problem again for several generations or more. Both Russia and China will face serious internal disorder.
Pennsylvania 19 Electoral Votes - Josh Shapiro
North Carolina 16 Electoral Votes - Roy Cooper
Michigan 15 Electoral Votes - Gretchen Whitmer .
Illinois 11 Electoral Votes
Arizona 11 Electoral Votes
Maryland 10 Electoral Votes
Minnesota 10 Electoral Votes
Kentucky 8 Electoral Votes .
California has 54 Electoral Votes, all of which will go to Kamala Harris regardless of who her VP pick is.
Math is unforgiving. If any of the first three VP choices could bring their state's Electoral Votes, which would otherwise be lost, that's the VP pick.
