Z,
Been out of town, catching up, see you have flown the coop. Can sympathize. I guess I'm the Last Bull, or one of them. Or maybe just too tired to lose my money elsewhere. In any case, the move from 18 to 26 from last May or so isn't really terrible, it just feels that way due to opportunity loss, and/or looking at companies like EMC or DELL (the true beneficiaries of the drive/chip demise, in addition to consumers). I don't know why the "influential industry analysts" who for the most part didn't see the glut coming can be depended on to see clearly when the glut will end. I doubt they will, and I doubt I will be able to either--the stocks will shoot up faster than you or I can say "Buy" when/if it does. Undoubtedly many will laugh and talk about dead money when I say this, but I still think that the total long term return over a period of years plausibly will be in excess of 30% for a company like QNTM, which is fine as far as I am concerned. If so, I can live with the volatility. I have plenty of time before retirement or before my daughter goes off to college.
RE: DLT--I'm not sure why the SEG/HWP/IBM alliance should be counted on to produce anything of note. Dozens of multiple company alliances have been attempted in the past among tech companies, and my sense is that the vast majority of them have ended with nothing to show for it; they just fold a year or two after starting up. Too much corporate culture conflict, not enough commitment to the project. Nor do I see why anyone should think that Exabyte will suddenly come out with a DLT-killer. Perhaps the market itself will slow, but if QNTM can actually get their international sales going--esp. in Europe now that an upgrade cycle seems to have begun there--then there should still be some pretty good growth. In any case, I would guess that the next DLT generation might be the last if QNTM/TeraStor is successful. But of course that is pure speculation--just as, I might add, projecting a DLT killer to come in a year is speculation. This stock is still undervalued, IMO, even if understandably so given the recent environment.
Obviously, none of this "answers" your as usual cogently articulated points in any definitive way. If we make a round trip back to 18/19, so be it. I was intending to hold most of what I bought last May until next year anyway. Sold some March 25 calls while gone against earlier positions to get a little cash flow, but hope, actually, for a little fall to buy them back cheaply in a couple of weeks (maybe when the convertible stock is issued and sold?).
Good luck in whatever new investments you make,
Sam |
