Sonny, re: Billion connected PC's.
What most of the naysayers don't realize is that the PC/technology/Internet revolution is only in its infancy and has only just begun (5-10 years if the starting point is Windows for the PC). Most of the adoption of critical technologies, such as the automible, television, ATMs, usually follow an 'S' curve, where there is an initial period where you have the "risk takers" trying new technologies, then followed by an exponential increase in users as the technology becomes more ingrained in our day-to-day use (technology obtains the critical mass it needs to survive), followed by a saturation period. Guess what. We're probably have only STARTED to begin the exponential period, and this period will probably last another 10-20 years. That's why you can have a slow down in certain areas and countries, but this will be made up in other faster growing economies. In other words, it is very unlikely, that we will have a total slowdown in PC purchases until we reach saturation.
In summary, buy the technology market LEADERS who are able to "shift" to any subtle changes in the PC environment over the next several tears, and in 5-10 years, you will be rich.
joey |
