Market Thoughts: Ok, at this point I think I'm done with any moves. Entering lunch time and the slide that can happen right around now, we're on the grind until the golden hour when we see if we can rally into the close or sell off into it. Path of least resistance (PoLR) is still down in my estimation. My hope with my purchases was that they will be a bargain days from now ... and that they will be higher upon close today, but with the understanding that if the market sells off into the close, they may be less. That's fine. Any position I take/took today is one that I'm willing to add to and that's an important strategy ... otherwise, you're saying you've caught the bottom.
Typically, I'm early on my entries ... even when I'm sure I've waited long enough. This is where position averaging becomes such an important tenet and strategy.
I have a hard time believing with the VIX spike and today's premarket nasdaq down 6% that we could rally to green or near green, but it's not out of the question. Anything less than 1.5% would be a huge win and as I write this, we're at 2.5%. Just too much fear in the AM, and too soon, for there not to be a sell the close trade on in my estimation. I think most will want to flatten position and then wait to see what happens overnight. Tuesday will be key.
But, a rally can't be ruled out as many, including myself, feel like today's action is an overreaction on top of last week's poor report card. Recessionary fears are driving the markets here but nothing significant has really changed.
Quality and specific names remain on my shopping list but it feels as though I'm done with moves today.
Stay safe and patient out there. |
