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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 296.26

-3.9%

Nov 4 4:00 PM EST

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To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (92797)	8/6/2024 8:18:44 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) of 95358

Good Morning Johnny, So far a 5% decline in equities BUT the real volatility is in the 2 year treasury. There is close to a 100 basis point drop in the lastb45 days. If the Fed raised rates that aggressively the equity market would be showing us a 10 decline. Lower rates = stronger earnings for some of those sectors it has hurt for 1-2 years. Autos and housing sectors for the poster children. My Chrysler store is selling pandemic level new trucks. $70,000 to $90,000 trucks at 9-10% (folks with good not great credit means 1500 to 1700 monthly payments. The smart buyers are walking out saying that is too much to pay and they go back into their old and sometimes paid for truck. Banks have dropped 12 to 24 month CD's by 100 basis points. Their cost of funds have gone down. I had three callable CD's with JPM and in the last 45 days they have been redeemed. My very enjoyable interest income has been cut in half and the renewing rates are 4% plus vs 5% plus. That makes me look to equities and a tax rate at half interest income BUT there is loss risk with Equities. So in reality this equity decline is welcome and not yet deep enough for me to be getting 6% and 5% is hard to find from Dividend Aristocrats. g It looks like more vol is the one given that's now a constant. Election impact? Maybe. I still like preferreds and energy. One of the major transitions that has occurred in the last 18 months is an awareness that the green new deal is prohibitively expensive and fossil fuels are going to be with us AND NEEDED for a lot longer. Meanwhile all of the substantial hype that renewable energy is inexpensive and EV's will dominate over ICE's have proven tp be substantially wrong and the EV' craze is slowing. The grid is no where near ready for convenient charging (unless it is on your garage). Lower rates will spur the auto sector and housing will increase the inventory available. Young folks with good jobs can buy and enjoy both in the future. I'm looking for good dividend payers, and will park money in Schwab money funds (which are paying less) awaiting value. Bob

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