| | | COTS as of August 6, 2024
Gold Acts Relatively Strong
While Indices Correct From Recent Highs Finding Support at Lower Levels
This past week gold pulled back and bounced closing the week just below all time highs at $2,473.40. The HUI (or gold bugs index) has made the same move and is under performing the metal. Both gold and the HUI are above their 200 dma and are working off the overbought condition. Gold is trading in a channel off its highs.
Silver, a more volatile metal, also pulled back and bounced from a much lower level than gold. Silver closed the end of the week at $27.59. Silver is now oversold and is trading just above its 200 dma. Traders I follow see this as a buying opportunity and are adding to their positions.
Dr. Copper closed the week at $3.99. It is oversold and trading just below its 200 dma. Traders I follow continue to watch for a buy level.
This week platinum has corrected along with gold although trading much weaker. It closed the week out at $929.90 down from a recent high of $1,100.00 still trading in a range of $950 to $1,100. Platinum is approaching is oversold and below its 200 dma. Palladium's move amplified the move of platinum with a much stronger bounce off lows. It closed on the week at $896.40. It is oversold and trading below its 200 dma.
WTIC has bounced of its recent lows closing the week out at $76.84. It is oversold and just below its 200 dma. Traders I follow have covered their shorts and looking for a move higher to short again. Natgas bounced off recent lows closing the week out at $2.14. It is oversold and is below its 200 dma.
Since the fall of 2023 the US$ has been in a trading range between 108 and 99. This week the US$ made a new low for this move and is trading at the low end of its range, bouncing off $102 and closing the week at $102.96. Markets were reacting to last Friday's jobs number and the actions of the Bank of Japan which started the carry trade to unwind. The yield on the 10 year US treasury made a new low and bounced off the 3.70 level. The yield now stands at 3.95. This year the TLT ETF has been a good trade to benefit from the weakness in the yield.
Decisions by the Democratic party on their presidential and vice-presidential candidates has calmed the markets somewhat.
With respect to the major stock indices, the DOW, SPX, QQQ and TSX have all bounced off their lows and are in oversold condition after being spooked by the US jobs numbers and actions of the Bank of Japan. Traders I follow were buying the lows on Monday.
With respect to the Commitment of Traders report, the commercials net short position in silver was a non event being unchanged while in gold the commercials reduced both their open position and net short position. See here and here and here.
Ed Steers's Comments:
on silver:
"... So, from a COMEX futures market perspective, the set-up is still very bearish in silver... "
on gold there was some covering by the smaller traders while the larger traders adding to their shorts.
Disaggregated futures and options - combined report:
cftc.gov
Legacy Report: Futures Only Commodity Exchange Incorporated:
cftc.gov |
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