Turkey / Erdogan (translated from German)
Under pressure from all sides
Status: 10.08.2024 20:35
Foreign policy muscle-flexing, rigorous domestic action: What made Turkish President Erdogan and his AKP popular for a long time is becoming less and less popular with the people. The economic worries are too great.
The Turkish president seemed tense, even though he was speaking to his most loyal supporters. In Rize on the Black Sea, Recep Tayyip Erdogan once again attacked Israel. But this time his words made people sit up and take notice. First he praised the Turkish arms industry, then he openly threatened: "We must be strong so that Israel does not continue to do bad things to the Palestinians" and "We intervened in Nagorno-Karabakh, we intervened in Libya, we can do the same elsewhere. There's no reason not to do that."The outcry was great. Does Erdogan want to intervene militarily in the Middle East? Erdogan spoke without a teleprompter. Experts doubt that he is planning a military intervention, especially since this is likely to be difficult not only militarily but also politically for NATO member Turkey. But Erdogan is driven.
Distraction no longer works
The Turkish population stands firmly behind the Palestinians, and voices are getting louder and louder to support them even more. This demand comes mainly from the Islamist camp: The New Welfare Party made significant gains in the last elections. Many voters switched from the AKP to the Islamists. Now the party wants to show itself as the true protector of the Palestinians. This harms Erdogan, as the polls show.
Suat Özcelebi is a consultant for political communication in Istanbul. He has advised many parties and steered campaigns. The political professional believes that Erdogan has lost a lot of trust and credibility, especially recently, and criticizes his political strategy: The Turkish president wants to distract from failures in the economy with foreign policy steps.
"But the crisis is so deep, he can do all kinds of things, talk about existential issues and security. Nevertheless, he cannot make people forget the economic situation in which people currently find themselves. "Everyday life unaffordable for many
Many Turks blame Erdogan for this with his years of economic policy based on spending and low interest rates. The main problem is inflation: Officially, it is just under 62 percent, but in fact it is likely to be significantly higher. The independent research institute ENAG puts the rate at just under 101 percent.
Shopping and renting, daily life have become almost unaffordable for millions of Turks, especially in the cities. Larger purchases are hardly possible anymore. The state-owned oil and gas supplier has just announced that the price of natural gas used in residential buildings has been increased by 38 percent. However, since wages, including the minimum wage and pensions, are calculated according to official data, they are not rising nearly as fast as spending.
Despair is spreading among many Turks: How are you supposed to survive? How can children be guaranteed a decent education? This is one of the reasons why young people in particular are planning to leave the country.
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Popularity is dwindling sharply
The political consultant Özcelebi speaks of an economic crisis that is much more serious than it is seen abroad. Especially because the middle class is falling into poverty: "People have already spent their salaries in the middle of the month. By the time people pay their rent, they have already spent 80 percent of their salary and are trying to get by with the remaining 20 percent. There are millions of such families. The hunger limit in Turkey is just under 19,000 to 20,000 Turkish lira." That's the equivalent of about 570 euros.
When asked by the Metropoll Institute how competent the government is in economic matters, more than 81 percent say that there has been mismanagement. Only 26 percent of voters would currently still vote for the AKP, compared to over 35 percent in May 2023 in the parliamentary elections. The largest opposition party, the CHP, is currently almost eight percentage points ahead of the AKP.
Erdogan is also in decline in terms of personal values: According to the ASAL polling institute, only just under 19 percent say in July's Political Agenda Survey that he is their favorite politician. For Erdogan, who is used to success and power-conscious, this is a personal low blow. Also because the mayor of the city of Ankara, Mansur Yavas, has replaced him as the most popular politician.
Nervousness despite diplomacy success
How nervous the Turkish government is was also evident at the beginning of August. The government blocked the online service Instagram, on the grounds that many messages of condolence for the killing of Hamas foreign director Ismail Haniya were blocked there. Another accusation was that Instagram was engaged in "digital fascism" and that Turkey's values were not respected.
But the action failed to have its effect. Because 57 million Turks use the very popular network. The consequence: the ruling AKP continued to lose in the polls - up to two percentage points. At least that's what the head of the ASAL polling institute told the news portal T24.
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Özcelebi believes that political attacks on an enemy from outside do not take effect as they used to, because distrust in the government is growing. "There is no big problem at the moment that the Turkish people are not experiencing. There is nothing we can say is going well," he says. In foreign policy, things are going a little better for Erdogan. Turkey and its intelligence service MIT were apparently significantly involved in the spectacular prisoner exchange between Russia and Belarus and Western states. Ankara Airport was the focus of the exchange. This was celebrated in the predominantly state-affiliated media. But ultimately, economic development will determine the success of what is likely to be Erdogan's last term in office
Turkish President Erdogan: Under pressure from all sides | tagesschau.de
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