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Biotech / Medical : VD's Model Portfolio & Discussion Thread

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To: squetch who wrote (4149)2/19/1998 5:22:00 PM
From: Biomaven   of 9719
 
I've been taking a look at NTII, currently exiled to the BB.

Consider the following table in the report they just released:

ntii.com

Diabetic Patient Self-Assessment of Nocturnal Pain

Measured on Visual Analogue Scale (VAS) of 1-100

8th Week of Treatment



Memantine
Placebo

Number of Patients
28
37

Mean Nocturnal Pain Rating
31.2
44.4

Median Nocturnal Pain Rating
23.6
47.3

P-Value = .073
---------

So what we have here is that the median dropped much more than the mean. That indicates to me that there is probably a large subgroup for which it worked very well and another subgroup for which it did nothing much.

Am I reading too much into the tea-leaves of a very empty cup? The stock looks tempting at these levels, except for the wicked spread and that little comment about running out of money in March... The stock price has been unchanged for about a week now, except for the bid/ask ping-pong.

My gut tells me that they'll come up with something to keep them going, that Memantine will be partnered and the stock is a buy. My head tells me to put itself under a pillow until the feeling goes away ...

Peter
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