| | | NVDA: Not going to link the earnings because they are available everywhere. Numbers were great, very good, business seems excellent, orders are excellent and the future is very bright. That said, I think we are clearly going to enter a period of share neutrality with a path of least resistance, in the near term, to the downside. The law of big numbers has clearly caught up to NVDA and one has to ask what is left in the tank that is going to surprise Main/Wall streets at this juncture. The beat on eps was less, the beat on revenues was less and the $50B buyback amount isn't going to amount to enough such that the stock will move much on it.
In short, they the company to catch due to their lead and they will continue to thrive, but it seems to me that there will be much better places now to put your money. Those chasing NVDA will likely fall with this report as well but could represent better opportunities. But wait it out because there is no rush now with this quarter in the rear view mirror. This new phase makes the AI trade into an investable technology after the dust settles with the tops likely in for a while now. Nothing wrong with that.
In the next few days to a couple of weeks, I think you'll get all these names cheaper.
As for my covered collar trade from earlier, with expiration on 9/20, is going to work well. My sell of the $150 Calls as the upper end of the collar should expire worthless meaning that I can keep the premium. My purchase of the $110 Puts will be in play over the next couple of weeks leading up to expiration. I expect NVDA will breach $110 to the downside making this play even better.
As far as what I'll be doing with my long shares. I'm probably going to unwind the overweight situation in all my accounts starting right about now, AH. I will unload some of them now and more tomorrow. I still expect to be overweight NVDA as my top play, but taking chips off the table.
Good luck all.
TJ |
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