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Gold/Mining/Energy : American Eco (ECGOF, ECX on Toronto exchange)
ECX 1.900+2.2%Jan 16 9:30 AM EST

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To: mph who wrote (1737)2/19/1998 9:11:00 PM
From: Francois H. Gaston  Read Replies (1) of 2841
 
Personally I am still not too concerned about ECGOF in the long run. (I can afford a big drop in the short term). What I am more and more concerned about is that their IR is "too nice" and speaks way too much... which would be fine if the web did not exist!. Furthermore they have NO PR aimed at investors.... ECGOF needs PR big time as well as an IR that does not let out dates that cannot be met.
The low PE is all due to perception of not meeting the deadlines they set for themselves, again and again and the lofty growth rate they want to achieve. I think ECO deserves to take a huge dive, right now (i.e. a 50% drop in stock price), for them to finally learn a lesson that they need to improve on IR and spend big money,.... I mean BIG money on a top of the line PR firm. Their stock price would improve fast. ECGOF has lost a lot of time in 1997 and 98. Some companies can remain undervalued forever. If they do not act this year, they will have more and more trouble with future acquisitions. Even DELL and Compaq use big time PR. Small companies like ECGOF need that even more. It is all perception. ECGOF's perception in the investment community is obviously not great... otherwise the Street would give ECGOF a superb PE. All the above IMHO.
The stock market looks as if it will take a breather before the weekend, and possibly after. I started shorting some stocks today, purely on a technical basis (not even knowing their product). ECGOF could be the target of shorts again, because of this weakness in stock market. I personally will not sell ECGOF because the more pessimism about it, the more likely it will rebound. Furthermore, On Balance Volume, Accumulation/Distribution, Negative Volume Index (smart money) and Positive Volume Index ("dumb money") are all up... suggesting continued accumulation. And furthermore, we could be bouncing of the 50d MVA. Therefore I don't think that ECGOF is great short at this level and I expect a drop tomorrow, followed by stabilization. Earning report and stockmarket condition will then dictacte what ECGOF's price will be. At this point I can't guess!
Good luck all.
Gaston
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