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O Wizard, that AMAT article contained most of the explanation for the strength in AMAT, NVLS, TER, DPMI, etc. The last paragraph, IMHO, is key Despite Asia's problems, Elliot Rogers, an analyst with Deutsche Morgan Grenfell, still projects a strong 1999 for chip equipment spending. "If Korea doesn't invest, someone else will," he said. My view: Korea has been producing to supply product against a strong demand from consumers around the world. The Asian turmoil will only minimally impact the growth of that end demand for semiconductor products. So if Korea, et al, can not come up with the capital for new plant and equipment (which is likely), it doesn't mean that the chips don't get produced. They just get produced in Taiwan or Ireland, or...etc. So a very small decrease in demand for semiconductor product will result in a few equipment deferrals (VECO).. and perhaps a few cancellations in SEA which will release the equipment for early delivery in strongly capitalized countries. Result: minimal initial impact on the semi - equipment suppliers, and a very strong snapback growth in 1999.. Why not buy now?.. Can't think of any reason not to...So have been loading up on AMAT, TER, VECO, DPMI, etc, etc..with reasonably decent results to date. Provided with the usual caveats concerning risk capital, and believing anything put out by the "Contrarian Indicator of the LSI Thread"..TSO |
