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Pastimes : All Things Weather and Mother Nature
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From: tntpal8/31/2024 8:01:32 AM
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Three areas of disturbed weather being monitored in the Atlantic basin

Area to monitor #1: The open Atlantic wave

The prime area for potential development to watch over the next week is over the Atlantic Ocean east of the Lesser Antilles.

For now, this tropical wave is producing little more than a disorganized cluster of showers and thunderstorms.



NBC2 (WBBH-TV)
Tropical wave over the open Atlantic Ocean

Through the upcoming weekend this wave will keep moving toward the west. Though showers and thunderstorms are firing with it now, it's unlikely we'd see any major organization or development through Sunday.

Because of this the National Hurricane Center is keeping the odds of development at 0% over the next 48 hours.

However, forecast models have been getting increasingly aggressive with this wave as it moves toward the Caribbean Sea next week.

In the area highlighted in orange, the potential for development is considered to be at 40%.



NBC2 (WBBH-TV)
Area to watch over the next week

Though it's too early to determine if something will develop and where it will ultimately track, water temperatures in the Caribbean Sea are very warm.

The image below denotes where the highest ocean heat content is present in the Atlantic basin.



NBC2 (WBBH-TV)
Ocean heat content

Ocean heat content refers to where the waters are warm, not just at the surface but through a profile of the upper levels of the ocean.

Should a tropical system move over this area, it would likely have abundant fuel for organization; one of many factors that influences how a tropical system may (or may not) develop.

We'll keep watching this wave as it moves west, but keep in mind for now that it's possible we may see more to come from this next week as it moves toward the Caribbean Sea.

Area to monitor #2: The western Gulf

For the last few days, numerous showers and thunderstorms have been firing across the western Gulf of Mexico with a disturbance off the coast of Texas.



NBC2 (WBBH-TV)
Area to watch over the Gulf

Given the time of year and the abundance of warm water in the Gulf of Mexico, features like this need to be monitored for tropical development.

Thankfully (at least for now) the forecast data isn't doing much in terms of intensification of this disturbance and given its location in the western Gulf its influence on our local weather looks low.

Area to monitor #3: The eastern Atlantic wave

Way on the other side of the Atlantic Ocean is a tropical wave that recently emerged off of Africa's west coast.



NBC2 (WBBH-TV)
Atlantic wave to watch

Late August and September are the times of year when waves like this have the best chance of making the long-haul across the Atlantic Ocean.

Because of it's far distance from North America no areas of land will be in the path of this wave for a while. But, we'll want to keep watch of it in case it is able to find a favorable environment.

For now, development odds will be kept low at 20% over the next week in the area shown in yellow.



NBC2 (WBBH-TV)
Area to monitor

We're just now approaching the peak point in the Atlantic hurricane season so be sure to stay plugged in with the latest forecast updates. We'll have the latest on NBC2 News.

DOWNLOAD the free NBC2 News app for your latest news and weather alerts.

nbc-2.com
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