Russia (Wagner) everywhere and the West is allowing it (translated from German).
Support for coup plotters
Wagner mercenaries expand Putin's power worldwide
analysis
Status: 08.09.2024 10:50 a.m.
After the death of their boss Prigozhin, there were doubts about what role the Wagner mercenary group would play in the future. But Russian mercenaries are more active than ever around the world - and an important tool for Putin's power.
It is not often that the Wagner private army speaks out publicly. A few days ago, she did so for once. In a statement, the mercenary force said it was no longer involved in the Russian "special operation" and no longer present in Ukraine. But in Belarus and in Africa.
So there should be no more Wagner soldiers in the country where they first appeared in public in 2014? At that time, the military with the skull badge on the camouflage suit helped Russian separatists to wrest territories in the east and Crimea from Ukraine. And they enabled Putin to conquer the city of Bakhmut in 2023 - with the help of prisoners as cannon fodder.
No matter how much credibility one attaches to Wagner's statement, it must not obscure one thing: All forecasts that the army of mercenaries would go into insignificance after the death of the Wagner boss have not come true.
Wagner troops as Putin's global tool
Yevgeny Prigozhin had taught Kremlin boss Putin to fear with his march on Moscow at the end of June 2023. But he broke off the possible coup halfway and was killed weeks later in a plane crash under dubious circumstances with almost the entire Wagner leadership team. But Prigozhin's legacy lives on: Russian mercenaries are now more active worldwide than ever. For a brief moment, it may have seemed as if they were endangering the regime of Russian President Putin - but today, more than ever, they represent a crucial tool in expanding his authoritarian model of rule.
In Africa, the mercenary group has steadily increased its footprint over the past few years. There, "Wagner" now operates under the name "Afrika Korps" and is thus directly subordinate to the Ministry of Defense in Moscow. Experts from ACLED (Armed Conflict Location and Event Data) have calculated that the group doubled its activities in Mali and Central Africa after Prigozhin's death.
The mercenaries have been present in Sudan and Libya for a long time. And in Niger, which was once praised by the German government as an "anchor of stability", Russian "instructors" appeared for the first time in April, even standing in front of a camera with their mouths covered in cowboy style.
Wagner forces are apparently involved in Venezuela
Recently, the US and the EU were also unsettled by reports that Wagner forces had been spotted in Venezuela and were supporting President Nicolás Maduro's power. Five years ago, Russian mercenaries had already helped to suppress protests there and ensure that the authoritarian Putin confidant remained in office. Now videos have resurfaced on social networks in which mercenaries with the skull symbol can be seen on the side of the security forces. "Putin supports the Maduro regime" was the headline of the US broadcaster Fox News.
But the mercenaries also continue to play a role in Europe: With their presence in Belarus, they are constantly stoking fears in Ukraine that Russia could open another front in its war of aggression with the help of its compliant neighboring state. In addition, British intelligence circles reported that the Russian National Guard had succeeded in integrating combat units of the ex-Prigozhin disciples into its own ranks.
Mercenary expansion is not a mere triumph
All this does not mean that Wagner - or ex-Wagner - is on an unstoppable triumphal march across the entire globe. In Africa, the mercenaries have recently made a name for themselves because of massive human rights violations and brutal actions against the civilian population. In addition, Russia - little noticed in Germany - had recently suffered what was probably its heaviest defeat since it became militarily involved on the African continent.
In Mali, where the Bundeswehr was still stationed until the end of 2023, the Malian army's "Afrika Korps" is helping in the fight against al-Qaeda terrorists and Tuareg separatists. During a major offensive in northern Mali, near the border with Algeria, they were ambushed on July 27. Dozens of ex-Wagner mercenaries were killed, according to Tuareg there were 84 Russians and 47 Malian soldiers.
Russia keeps military regime in power - and is rewarded
Even if the Wagner people have lost their status of "invincibility", this will certainly not lead to Russia withdrawing from Mali, the Sahel region or even Africa. So far, this swap deal has worked too well from Moscow's point of view: Russia keeps military regimes in the saddle, and its fighters are rewarded with rights to exploit mineral resources such as gold mines, oil and uranium.
In addition, it has the important collateral benefit for Moscow that the influence of Europe and the USA in the so-called Global South can be pushed back in this way. UN troops and the Bundeswehr have left Mali. There are also no more German soldiers in Niger, and the US is about to withdraw from there. France has been out for a long time. Russia stepped into the gap - at the invitation of the military regimes.
Global Wrestling: Liberalism or Authority?
The bitter struggle between liberal, Western worldviews and authoritarian models of rule can be observed very vividly in the example of Africa. After the fighting in northern Mali, the spokesman for the Ukrainian military intelligence service GUR, Andriy Yusov, surprisingly appeared on the scene by declaring that the Tuareg had "received necessary information, and not only information, that led to a successful operation against Russian war criminals."
Now it is known from Sudan that Ukrainian special forces are involved in the conflict there with drone training. The fact that Ukraine, which is fully occupied with repelling the Russian attack at home, is also said to have made a decisive contribution to inflicting a defeat on Russian mercenaries in Mali, is considered by those familiar with the situation to be greatly exaggerated, according to ARD information.
Criticism of Ukrainian jubilation after Wagner defeat
In addition, the public Ukrainian jubilation over the Wagner defeat proved to be a diplomatic own goal. An example: Senegal, which is neutral in and of itself, summoned Ukraine's ambassador there after he celebrated the attack on Russian troops on Facebook. How can one cheer when terrorists massacre soldiers, one wondered in Dakar.
The important EU partner ECOWAS also forbade "any form of external interference in the region". Reports that a kind of "proxy war" is now being fought between Russia and Ukraine on African soil may be exaggerated - but from a diplomatic point of view, Kiev would have been better off remaining silent.
Mercenary end in Africa not foreseeable
As far as Russia is concerned, the failure in northern Mali may have caused the first hairline cracks in the cooperation between the military regimes in the Sahel and Moscow. In any case, the Wagner presence has not yet led to an improvement in the security situation in the region - on the contrary. However, it is in no way foreseeable that this would lead to a termination of the cooperation. The coup plotters in Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso continue to rely on military aid from Moscow. And from the point of view of Russia's President Putin, it is clear that he will not be able to get rid of his important tool of power in the struggle for global influence so easily.
Wagner-Söldner bauen weltweit Putins Macht aus | tagesschau.de |
