SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
From: ajtj999/9/2024 11:07:37 PM
6 Recommendations

Recommended By
JSD
Real Man
skier31
skinowski
tntpal

and 1 more member

  Read Replies (1) of 97220
 
There are lots of things I've looked at that point to a big correction in late 2025/early 2026. There are a few possible reasons this would happen, including:

1. Massive tariff increases and a pan-Pacific trade war.
2. Expiration of all 2017 Tax Cuts without extension.
3. A new global pandemic.

The patterns I'm seeing point to T-bills in the 2.75% to 3% range in that time frame. This would rule out massive spending increases, new bailouts, or things like failed bond auctions or US bond rating downgrades.

The similar patterns in WTIC that suggest a massive dive in oil prices in 2025-2026 say the more likely scenarios are #1 and #3, with #1 a far higher probability due to how close this policy could be to being implemented in late Jan. 2025.

A pan-Pacific trade war envisioned by the person likely to take the big chair would put the brakes on both imports and exports while bringing the North American supply chain to a stop worse than the pandemic times, as things would just be cancelled rather than delayed for shipment.

The chaos would be something not seen in anyone's lifetime.

I am not being partisan here. I am interpreting highly probable patterns and pointing to the things that have the greatest likelihood of being the trigger for these events. If someone sees something different, please, chime in.

I am speaking as someone who has been involved in international trade since age 17. If you jack up tariff rates on little or no notice to levels not seen since the 1800's, it will crash the international supply chain and cause massive harm to consumers, corporations, communities, and government.

Be careful what you wish for. Chaos is not what business wants. It will harm asset prices and commodity prices everywhere.

The thing is, these patterns suggest this will be a big hole that will reverse quickly. Whether that's due to musical chairs or policy change, i can't say. All i know is people should like and appreciate bonds for the next 12-18 months, and then probably hate them after that for many years.
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2025 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News