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Technology Stocks : LSI Corporation

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To: Duane L. Olson who wrote (9922)2/20/1998
From: shane forbes  Read Replies (1) of 25814
 
Saintly One:

RE: I was going crazy looking

You and me both!

Don't know how that little trick happened. Perhaps an errant cntrl-X?

Had to type the whole blinkin' thing again!

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Re: "How did this ever occur to you?"

KURLAK!!!

When he announced that last semiconductor poo-poo he mentioned MU, TXN and LSI.

Figured it could not be DRAM but figured it must be some commodity connection.

Realized then that in the past (and this includes post 1992 restructuring) LSI was really a gate-array company.

(That's why pre-1992 LSI had up years and serious down years - like a yo-yo.

Very commodity type behavior.

If this kind of behavior reminds you of a certain other company. You are right - this is MU behavior! Commodity business - wild profits in upswings, horrendous losses in downturns. )

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See the market knoweth everything - this is perhaps why LSI has been connected with MU like newly weds.

But the marriage long ago ended!

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Still we know LSI's revenue has not moved.

Even though I think the lack of design tools in advanced designs is slowing LSI's momentum, I know CoreWare designs are quite robust.

That implies the non-CoreWare stuff (the "commodity" gate arrays) are sucking wind.

We hear a lot about ALTR and XLNX going after this gate array market and higher-level companies like LSI are giving it up. (Recall the MOT announcement about getting out of gate arrays. And LSI's de-emphasizing of this segment.)

So it's the MU component in LSI that's holding LSI back. And to make matters worse unfortunately gate-arrays no longer have up-cycles like DRAM does! So LSI has a huge anchor around its neck right now. With time the effect will lessen. But not immediately.

See no wonder we go down early and stay down!

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Everyone is going for the CoreWare story but ignoring the other significant gate-array side of the business.

Thus they(I) expect explosive growth and am disappointed when it does not come and feel let down.

Well the explosive growth is probably there in 40% of the business. It's the other 60% that is dying (willingly).

(Unfortunately for LSI this 60% is likely not a cash cow! that would have been very nice. Like old companies - the old segment of the business spews out cash the new segment uses the cash to grow - a nice situation that transforms a company without destroying current earnings etc. LSI's 60% gate-array segment is likely not doing that much cash generation!!!!!!)

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I kind of see this as a drawn out restructuring if you will.

1992 was sudden - a one shot kick me where it hurts.

This is more of a prolonged restructuring - a slow death of the low-end(commodity) gate array business that LSI is jettisoning out of its long term plans.


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(BTW during the c.call LSI said CoreWare is 40% of the business and they expect it to be 50% of the business in 1998. With say 10% growth in LSI's overall revenue, this would translate to 37.5% growth for CoreWare and an 8% drop in gate-arrays.)

(I corroborated the 40% with Diana Matley.)

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