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Technology Stocks : LSI Corporation

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To: Duane L. Olson who wrote (9924)	2/20/1998 12:21:00 AM
From: shane forbes	Read Replies (1) of 25814

TSO: I've never doubted that 1999, heck 2000 and even 2001 and likely 2002 will be great years for semi-equips. It's 1998 that concerns me. ---- About the demand thing that's not entirely true in the one segment that truly matters to the AMATs of the world - DRAM. (You see the COHUs and TERs doing well more so because the increasing complexity of the chips needs more testing. That's why I bought COHU a little while ago.) Unlike 1996 and even 1997 this time DRAM companies aren't spending. I suspect much of this buying has to do with the "market's magical ability to look past some mysterious divine period of 6 months or so". But I think they are ignoring how bad it could get before it gets better. AMAT is a special case because it is just so darn good. Like the last downturn it'll pull through stronger. But some others won't be so lucky. Yet all the stock prices have gone up. Weird. Just saw HELX (my bud) mentioning Asia problems. Of course even though stock got hit today perhaps in this wacko market tomorrow it'll end up. Definition of a bull market: "Bad" news - what's that? ---- I figured by dumping my semi-equips I was forfeiting around 20% of potential gains. That was an acceptable risk to me. The stocks I put that money in are up around 10% so far so I don't feel too bad - unless the semi-equips totally run away from me! That would really suckaroo. ---- I'm also waiting for the BTB for these guys. Thought it would be out this week. I bet the number has plummeted for the front-end guys. BTW the same pattern where the back end guys remained strong while the front end guys' BTB kept going down happened in the early parts of the last downturn. ----

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