Brewing tropical threat to US could play out in four different ways
Sept. 21, 2024
The next tropical threat to the U.S. is brewing in the Caribbean as there are increasing signs that the ingredients needed for a tropical storm or even a hurricane are coming together.
A number of computer forecast models depict a strong tropical storm or hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico by the end of next week, but there still remains a lot of uncertainty in the forecast, with several potential outcomes.
The National Hurricane Center currently gives medium odds of tropical development in the western Caribbean Sea or southern Gulf of Mexico within the next seven days. The odds have been steadily increasing over the past week, and further development may loom beyond seven days as the development window gets closer, according to the FOX Forecast Center.
“From Texas to Florida, the entire Gulf Coast is still at play,” said FOX Weather Meteorologist Stephen Morgan...
There are four main scenarios with how the forecast will shake out, each successive one presenting a greater threat to the U.S. Gulf Coast.
Tropical threat scenario 1: Gyre forms but no tropical development
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The first scenario shows a gyre forming, but no tropical development.In this case, the atmospheric conditions come together for the broad area of low pressure to bring rain to Central America, but the right conditions to create any individual low-pressure areas never materialize.
“This being the least impactful to the U.S. mainland, (but) that doesn’t speak anything to what we could see in Central America,” Morgan said. “The gyre also produces prolific amounts of rain, so we’re expecting heavy rain from Belize, Guatemala to Honduras, as far south as Panama, Mexico, to going to deal with just the rain.”
Tropical threat scenario 2: Weak low develops, but is steered west into Central AmericaIf low-pressure centers form on the northern and western edge of the gyre, and if high pressure becomes entrenched over the southern U.S., that would create a block across the Gulf and instead steer storms into Central America.
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The second scenario shows the threat steering west into Central America.FOX Weather“So that could lead to rounds of heavy rain (there),” Morgan said. “That could also cause some concerns in regards to mudslides, and landslides.”
Tropical threat scenario 3: Low develops on the eastern side of the gyre, but in the CaribbeanIn this case, a low-pressure center could form on the eastern side of the gyre but would develop farther south in the Caribbean.
A cyclone could still eventually move into the Gulf of Mexico and threaten coastal areas.
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The third scenario shows a cyclone that could eventually move into the Gulf of Mexico, threatening coastal areas.Getty Images/iStockphoto“Another steering mechanism that we are looking at very carefully, the potential impacts that could be associated with it would be a dip in the jet stream,” said FOX Weather Meteorologist Kendall Smith. “And if that is over the eastern U.S., perhaps that tugs this system a little further to the north, and that would be more of a concern for folks living right along the Gulf Coast.”
Tropical threat scenario 4: Tropical disturbance organizes in the Gulf of MexicoThe most daunting scenario is if a low originates already in the Gulf of Mexico and then uses the record warm water temperatures to rapidly develop into a hurricane.
Forecasts for just-developing or disorganized systems are subject to large errors and significant changes.
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The fourth scenario shows a tropical disturbance organizing in the Gulf of Mexico.FOX Weather“The computer forecasts that predict development will occur over the warm waters of the Caribbean or the extreme southeastern Gulf show a tropical storm or hurricane moving north that could affect the Gulf Coast somewhere between Louisiana and Florida late next week,” said FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross. “Computer projections that develop the system over land or predict it will stay weak for longer stall it closer to Mexico. They let it drift in the western Gulf, blocked by the high to the north. It could still impact the Gulf Coast in some way, though it would seemingly take longer to develop, pushing the threat farther into the future.”
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