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Strategies & Market Trends : ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts
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To: Sun Tzu who wrote (87803)9/22/2024 10:24:28 PM
From: ajtj99  Read Replies (1) of 97496
 
I'm still going with the USD as the tell here, and it says up into Oct. 2 for risk assets and commodities, down to Oct. 15/16, and then a meandering move up for 6-weeks into the 1st week of Dec.

I think we'll have a blow-off/re-test of that high in early Jan, and then that's it for a while.

My model seems to point to a sharp and fast recession in 2026, most likely due to the expiration of most of the 2017 tax cuts in the end of 2025 due to Dem in big chair and gridlocked Congress.

The patterns suggest a fast recession and recovery, likely due to Fed cuts as gridlock would render policy responses by Congress nearly impossible.

This would lead to substantial Dem losses in 2026 mid-terms, but still gridlock. Rep in the big chair in 2028, but still gridlock in Congress. Dem in the big chair in 2032.

Lots of churn in the big chair for 20-years, not unlike what happened leading into the election of 1860.
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