Israel Putters into Crisis, + Zelensky Arrives at Final Curtain Call
Simplicius
Sep 23, 2024
simplicius76.substack.com
Avoiding the Escalatory Trap: Managing Escalation during the Israel-Hamas War
publications.armywarcollege.edu
"However, as Israel’s strike against the IRGC in Syria suggests, there may be room for attacks against Iranian assets without risking regional escalation. Whether doing so would have an enduring deterrent effect is unclear. However, the decreasing cycle of violence after April’s attack suggests Tehran is prepared to accept more risk outside its territory than inside, as evidenced by its response to Haniyeh’s killing. This makes sense. In Syria, Iran is risking proxies and the personnel and assets it uses to support them. In Iran, the regime risks appearing vulnerable, which diminishes its deterrent capability and risks political instability. This point suggests that, if nothing else, attacks against Iranian military personnel and assets in combat zones may not have the escalatory effect that many fear. Even if that is not true, attacking Iran’s proxy support infrastructure would likely have some disruptive effect on proxy operations, diminishing the options Iran would have to retaliate." |
