COTS as of September 24, 2024
We've Had Quite a Run!
This past week gold made new all time highs and pulled back at the end of the week closing out at $2,668.10. The HUI (or gold bugs index) is nearing all time highs but has not yet broken above. Gold is overbought and some are expecting a correction to the $2,500 level. The HUI is not yet overbought. Both gold and the HUI are well above their 200 dma.
Since the August lows, silver has gained strength and is now forming a double top. It is trading below its all time highs of $50 but matched its recent high. Silver closed the end of the week at $31.82. Silver is not yet overbought but is well above its 200 dma. Traders I follow are looking to add to their positions at lower levels.
Dr. Copper made a minor double top closing the week at $4.60. It is overbought and is trading above its 200 dma. Traders I follow are considering shorting this move.
Platinum made a strong move closing the week at $1,022.00. Traders I follow are long the metal and looking for a move up to $1,100.00 with the metal still trading in a range of $950 to $1,100. Platinum is not overbought and is just above its 200 dma. Palladium has had a strong move up and closed the week at $1,023.40. It is correcting back towards its 200 dma and is not overbought. Traders I follow took profits near the recent high.
WTIC has corrected and is trading at recent lows closing the week out at $68.18. It is is below its 200 dma. Natgas is making a strong move up to the $2.90 level. It is overbought and is above its 200 dma. Traders I follow are shorting natgas.
In the aftermath of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points, the US$ is making new lows closing the week at $100.11. The yield on the 10 year US treasury bounced off recent lows and closed the week at the 3.75 level. This year the TLT ETF has been a good trade to benefit from the weakness in the yield.
With respect to the major stock indices, the DOW, SPX, and TSX have all made new all time highs recovering from the liquidity scare of August 5. The QQQs have been unable to make new highs. The TSX has been the strongest of the 4 indices. The surprise strong index were the Chinese markets responding to the governmental liquidity injection. I've included that index for fun.
In the Commitment of Traders report, which seems to matter less and less, the commercials increased their net short positions in gold and silver. See here and here and here.
Ed Steers' Comments:
on silver:
"... Not that you need to be reminded, but from a COMEX futures market perspective, the set-up in silver is wildly bearish in the extreme..."
on gold:
"For obvious reasons, the set up in gold from a COMEX futures market perspective, remains in wildly bearish territory. The only positive in this report was the fact that the Big 4 actually reduced their short position -- and in the prior COT Report, did almost nothing."
Disaggregated futures and options - combined report:
cftc.gov
Legacy Report: Futures Only Commodity Exchange Incorporated:
cftc.gov |
