Debra
>>I hope to still be in FDC when online bill payment and banking really catches on. It may take a while but in my way of thinking I am hopeful that it will be worth the wait. I guess time will tell.<<
The following article is from TechWeb News. techweb.com
=== The Scoop ===============================
By Terry Sweeney, InternetWeek
Paying more attention to your PointCast stock quotes as the Dow fluctuates? Don't worry. Literally and figuratively, these current economic uncertainties are a blip on the screen. Why? The Web is poised to transform world economies through cost improvements in a key area: distribution.
Such transformations have rocked the economy during this rapidly ending century.
Nearly 80 years ago, Charlie Chaplin, Douglas Fairbanks, Mary Pickford and D.W. Griffith did the unthinkable and formed United Artists, largely to win artistic, if not financial, control over their films. The modern film studio system was born.
And 25 years ago, OPEC stunned the world with an oil embargo that drove energy prices through the roof and set off a 10-year cycle of inflation leading to recession in our economy.
Then just last week, I ordered my first book from amazon.com. International markets applauded the move. The Dow Jones Industrial Average soared. OK, so that may be a little grandiose, but it is worth noting the ripple effect of even the slightest adjustment in a distribution chain.
The tangible effect of infrastructures such as highways or phone systems to economic development and distribution is well documented by the World Bank. And subverting those established channels is the stuff of headlines, market swings and cultural upheaval.
So here comes the Internet as a new, major distribution infrastructure, but one that threatens to subvert existing channels and make obsolete everyone from travel agents to printing companies to local bookstores that offer story hours and latte.
As evidence, InternetWeek has reported extensively about Cisco's Web efforts. The internetworking vendor estimates an annual run rate of $3 billion from orders generated through its Cisco Connection Online Web site.
As a tool for ordering, the site itself is ordinary. But it's fast, secure and doesn't require a specialized front end. Just a PC and a browser and, presto, you're an extranet partner.
Is the Web site alone responsible for the strong earnings Cisco reported two weeks ago? Clearly not. And yet, industry leaders seeking to copy the search-and-destroy methods of Cicso CEO John Chambers may be well served by watching the emphasis the company places on its electronic commerce initiative.
This isn't a screed about why you should Webify your business processes. Nonetheless, think about other recent headlines as the bull market continues its expansion. Corporate profits are at unprecedented levels. Mergers and acquisitions played a big role, as did low interest rates.
But automated business processes, from manufacturing to inventory to, yes, distribution, are unmistakably adding to the bottom line. Add in the breakthroughs in microprocessor speeds and server power and, well, you get the picture.
As the bull market continues to flirt with the 8400 level, the question we have to ask ourselves is hardly new: How long can this upward climb possibly last?
It's clear in some sectors that the market is overvalued. Can the nation's largest companies continue to grow revenue and profits?
Absolutely. The same economic momentum generated by processors and servers has yet to really catch fire where Web commerce is concerned. It's early, even from the most optimistic viewpoint.
At the same time, the United States leads the world in terms of PC penetration and Internet use. What happens as this phenomenon is replicated and likely surpassed in other major world economies like China, Germany or Japan?
And can we appreciate or imagine what happens when, not if, multiple vertical industries apply the same Think System as Cisco for Web-based distribution? And what happens when they toss in a larger measure of creativity and innovation to their own implementations?
Take, for example, a story in this issue by my colleague Rich Karpinski. His piece is on a start-up called E-Toys that is seeking to do for the toy industry what amazon.com has done for books: offer huge inventory, good prices, convenience and customer service. Expect to see more of this sort of innovation, far beyond toys and books.
But don't expect Chrysler Corp., Cisco, Dell Computer and others we've chronicled on these pages to stand still. They have an edge in this game, and their ability to innovate and refine can only lead to better, more profitable Web sites. And those moves are far more than blips on the screen.
Terry Sweeney is assistant news editor at InternetWeek. |
