Ed,
I must admit, "I don't know the correct answer" on the
unearned revenues contribution to potential EPS. Anyone
more informed or more intelligent in interpreting the
financials, please enlighten us.
But getting back to my main point, what growth rate do you
expect for MSFT in 98, 99, 2000, 2001, and 2002. At least
let us look at ahead 98 and 99. If it could grow 40% each
of these years, the revenues have to grow to 18.2B in 98
and to 26Billion by end of 99.
How do you and others see the outlook, Is this possible?
Where will it come from? My scenario for 99:
Windows platform : 5B
NT platform : 3B
Office applications : 6B
Backoffice applications: 4B
Windows CE platform : .5B
E-commerce : .5B (Expedia, carpoint, sidewalk,..)
MSNBC, MSN, Web-TV : 1B
Miscellaneous : 1B (Games,...)
Total : 21Billion for Calender 99.
That would be a 25% compuond growth rate. (calling for 30 - 35PE)
SO calender 99 EPS of around 4.80. 33PE would put the stock at 160
(pre-split) by Jan 2000.
I may be conservative and as a long term holder, I can't loose over
the 5 year horizon.
Want to hear from the rest of you
johnd |
