The National Hurricane Center's track forecasts for the eventual path of Hurricane Milton were unusually accurate, starting from the first storm advisory.
Why it matters: The early confidence in the eventual path of Hurricane Milton allowed officials time to warn the public and prepare communities for the powerful storm.
Zoom in: Milton, which made landfall Wednesday night in Siesta Key, Fla., as a Category 3 storm, was always predicted to end up coming ashore near Tampa Bay.
- This never wavered, despite typical uncertainties in track forecasts at long lead times. In fact, the NHC's track forecasts for Milton outperformed their typical average error rates for such storms, according to Brian McNoldy, a hurricane researcher at the University of Miami.
- "The track forecasts of the landfall location were exceptional," McNoldy told Axios. "I think we all wish they could always be that accurate for so long. It doesn't change the fate of the eventual impacts, but it certainly helps with preparation and evacuation."
Yes, but: While the track forecast itself was on point, significant storm timing errors occurred even on the day of landfall, said Michael Lowry, a hurricane specialist and storm surge expert at WPLG Local 10 in Miami.
- "The models really struggled with landfall timing, which we did see reflected in the forecast," he noted.
- Forecasts on Wednesday morning had the storm coming ashore at 2am ET on Thursday morning, about 6 hours behind the actual landfall timing, Lowry said.
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