Hurricane Nadine: Fact And Fiction Around A Potential Tropical System In The Caribbean
Story by Jonathan Belles
• 2h •
You’ve probably seen posts on social media about Hurricane Nadine following Milton, but for right now, that’s just a Category 5 storm of misinformation.
You’ve likely seen a cone of uncertainty already pointed toward Florida like this one, but those are simply fake news. Those cones that have been floating around are mostly ones borrowed from Hurricane Helene several weeks back and do not relate to the future weather.
It is true that models are indicating that something may fester by the middle to end of next week in the western Caribbean.
This is the most likely area for storms to develop in mid-October. Storms from this location typically move north to northeastward.
We also need to make a leap of faith in this discussion that no other areas develop before this one in question. As of this writing Friday afternoon, the NHC was watching an invest coming off the coast of Africa, and there are likely several days between now and when this system may form.
So what exactly are models saying?Models are picking up on a breakdown of the Intertropcial Convergence Zone (ITCZ) as a couple of tropical waves ripple westward across the Caribbean and Central America. This breakdown may create a tropical cyclone or two next week on either side of Central America.
What are we watching? Both of the major global model ensemble suites – the American GFS and the European – have at times shown an entity developing off the coast of Nicaragua or Honduras. The German ICON and Canadian CMC models have also had lukewarm depictions of such a system.
The GEFS (the ensembles for the GFS) have been more excited about that system. Multiple runs of the GEFS mean have shown a closed isobar forming, although this has not been shown consecutively from run to run on every run. This closed isobar on the GEFS mean is a flag that most members of the ensemble have some development, but not all members.
What is important here is that there is enough agreement that the system is worth mentioning.
When? Models indicate that a system may begin brewing by early next week with formation occurring during the middle to end of next week. This window will likely float around some over the coming days.
Where does it go? Under the big assumption that something does form in the Caribbean, it is likely to be drawn toward the northwestern Caribbean. The “cone” of sorts is very wide at this point, bringing this system west, northwest, north or northeastward.
The pattern that will be in place toward the end of next week will feature a dome of high pressure over the Bahamas. The clockwise flow around that system will likely dictate where our tropical feature will go.
Exactly where the tropical system goes will depend upon the strength, orientation and location of the high pressure system. A stronger, more western ridge would push the tropical system into Central America while a weaker system might allow it to take a more climatologically favored track over Cuba.
The bottom line: While some models are trying to show another system developing over the next week to 10 days, let’s not freak out about it. We don’t even know if it will form yet.
And a Hurricane Nadine is currently a long shot. We’ll let you know if that changes.
T?his premium article represents a view of the weather on October 11. These forecasts are expected to change in the following days, but this article will not be updated.
Jonathan Belles has been a graphics meteorologist and writer for weather.com for 8 years and also assists in the production of videos for The Weather Channel en español. His favorite weather is tropical weather, but also enjoys covering high-impact weather and news stories and winter storms. He's a two-time graduate of Florida State University and a proud graduate of St. Petersburg College.
Hurricane Nadine: Fact And Fiction Around A Potential Tropical System In The Caribbean |
