Harry,
Let's see here:
1. Toothpaste seems to work. Some say teeth feel stronger. Some feel less sensitivity. Some think it tastes better. ...Sounds like there's a market for it. And the company has been improving the dual chamber so it works better.
2. FDA Monograph. It exists. ENML is telling truth in prospectus. According to spokesperson, FDA currently has no issue with ENML branding/labeling of toothpaste. So it looks like this thread got all worked up over FDA branding issue for nothing. And as noted be others, FDA approval is not everything. It is important to follow guidelines; but that is not going to stop toothpaste from selling.
3. National roll-out is in progress. Although I haven't seen it in local stores yet, folks across country report seeing it in stores (from other threads). Friends report seeing it. It is not in every store yet, but we are approaching critical mass from a distribution standpoint. Shelf space and location is O.K. Consumers will find it.
4. Advertising is eye catching. Yes, those marketing guys put together a great commercial. And it is even consistent with FDA guidelines. (BTW, when I contacted FDA, I learned that do not have specific television guidelines, other than following details of the Monographs, or approved NDAs.) With initial focus on generating consumer trial (idea being that once you try it, you'll buy more), it should be flying off shelves at the initial reduced price.
5. Results from Pilot Clinical Studies are coming out next month. Obviously a cornerstore in the marketing blitz. Let's see here: a segment of nightly news here, a discussion on talk show, etc. Not to mention the advertising blitz for dental professionals. Even Enamelon's web site will have links to pilot clinical trials. Ah yes, it's great to have competitive differentiation, isn't it? And the FDA guidance (as posted earlier) allows the distribution of balanced peer reviewed articles.
7. Marketing expenses will increase as advertising ramps up to consumers and dental professionals, after pilot study results are released. Not too concerned unless product doesn't sell. But it seems that 3% market share levels are being maintained in monitored test markets. (It should spike above 3% and slowly drop off to just above 3%). The company expects to continue loosing money the next couple of quarters. But the company's expectations leaves room for surprises, especially in how media reacts to pilot clinical study outcomes
7. Stock price is rising on low volume. Fewer risk takers are willing to short at these levels. Many day traders have moved on to more volatile targets. The longs (including myself) are simply waiting to review the sales performance later this summer/fall. And by that time, the chewing gum announcement and sensitive teeth toothpaste line should be out or on immediate horizon.
Bottom line, the Barron's article really blew the air out of the stock performance. But the company has been working extremely hard to get where they are today. Wall Street seems to recognize this now, as the stock is starting to rise in anticipation of the fun to come. I'm tired of playing along with the shorts.
If anyone has additional information, please share with thread. Good luck to all.
Greg B. |
