Prove it.
I showed you mine, now show me yours.
climatedepot.com
To review why this is superior to Saffir Simpson, both in the total power of the storm and to better objectively quantify the storm and put it into perspective as far as its place in history, Saffir Simpson is a spot wind speed at the center of a storm. A dime-sized dynamo like Charley does not quantify nearly the total power of the storm vs Ian which was larger, or the biggest of them all to hit Florida, Donna in 1960 Why should all 3 be a 4? Charleys hurricnae force winds, for instance, one of the metrics, only extended out 15 miles. Ian was more like 50. Donna was over 150. So my scale uses Sea level pressure, Maximum wind ( like Saffir Simpson) but the extent of 64kt, 50 kt snd. 34 kt winds with a formula to come up with a rating for total power of the storm. That total is divided by 5, but then a PRESSURE TENDENCY factor is used. If pressures are rapidly rising as the storm comes to the coast, the category is reduced. If falling it is enhanced. The physical reason for that is an intensifying ( weakening) hurricane will have the proper set up up to bring the strongest winds to the surface (. not allow the strongest winds to come to the surface). With intensifying storms for instance, over 90% of the flight level wind may make it to the surface. Weakening storms may be as low as 50%. Idalia, which rapidly weakened the last 10 hours before landfall had no evidence of damage of winds to cat 3 levels. Same with Lili in 2002. Storms like Ida and Charley that were still deepening and the amount of wind maintained inland with Helene showed they by and large lived up to their power and impact ratings. But each of those ratings were not the exact same as the other strength of my scale is it can be used in tenths. Why should a storm that is 5 mph from being a category higher be listed as the lower category? Even with the outdated Saffir-Simpson scale. the National Hurricane Center should go to tenths.
But this will also eliminate the nonsense we heard after Helene that storms are getting bigger. That is not true. It’s the opposite. The size of storms has decreased and the average ACE/storm has decreased. But of course, climate people who don’t actually forecast the weather will be happy to say the opposite, apparently clueless or deceptive on the size of hurricanes in the past.
In any case, the current season has a total impact score of 12.2 which is fourth place since 1995 behind 2020.2005 and 2004.
But why did the season come out of the gate strongly but disappear in mid-season? And was climate change ( not man-made) involved?
To understand this, we must look at the vertical velocity patterns. From early July into August there was a favorable vertical velocity pattern that resembles most closely in the means a phase 2 of the Madden Julian oscillation.....cont. |
